OpenAI is reconsidering its IPO timeline: lessons from SpaceX's volatility and market pressure
OpenAI's leadership appears to have paused to reassess the timeline for its long-awaited initial public offering (IPO). The reason is the high-profile but extremely volatile debut of SpaceX shares, which clearly demonstrated the risks associated with large-scale offerings in the high-tech sector, especially in AI.
On the Polymarket prediction platform, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not go public before the end of 2026 to be in the range of 30-40%. These figures reflect growing market skepticism and significant bets against a quick listing.
The SpaceX Case: From Euphoria to Correction
SpaceX placed shares at $135 each as part of a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11, 2026. On the first day of trading under the ticker SPCX, the price started at $150, and by June 17, it soared above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization to over $2 trillion. However, euphoria quickly turned to disappointment. By June 26, SpaceX shares were trading around $152.86, having almost completely lost all initial gains after a series of double-digit percentage declines.
It is this volatility — a rapid surge followed by a 25-30% pullback — that, according to insiders, is now directly influencing discussions on OpenAI's board of directors.
Internal Disagreements and Strategic Pause
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8 but immediately made it clear that specific timelines for the public offering were not set. "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," OpenAI stated.
According to available information, CFO Sarah Friar is leaning towards postponing the IPO to 2027. The rationale: huge expenses on computing infrastructure and the complexities associated with transitioning to public reporting. At the same time, CEO Sam Altman insists on a faster market entry, creating tension within the leadership. The SpaceX case has only strengthened the concerns of the "bears" on the board.
Why This Matters for Investors?
Even the most high-profile offerings now have to face a tough assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period expires. OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion. With such high expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes. The window for OpenAI to go public is still open, but the situation remains extremely uncertain.
My analysis: Postponing the IPO to 2027 looks like a pragmatic decision. OpenAI needs to demonstrate sustainable monetization of its AI products, not just a race for computing power. The market is tired of "growth at any cost" strategies — proof of business model viability is now required. If OpenAI shows strong quarterly results and proves its ability to generate revenue, the delay could work in its favor, ensuring a more stable and profitable listing.