Bitcoin is preparing for a local bottom: $42,000 — the consensus of miners and traders
The Bitcoin market is entering a phase where two key players — a Chinese mining giant and the co-founder of BitMEX — are converging in their bearish forecasts. Jiang Zhouer, founder of the BTC.TOP pool, and Arthur Hayes have almost simultaneously pointed to the same price range: $40,000–$44,000. This is not a coincidence, but a signal that the market is pricing in a serious correction.
Zhouer is betting that the local bottom will fall at the $42,000–$44,000 level, expecting it by the end of 2026. His argument is based on an analysis of the mNAV indicator of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) shares. This ratio, reflecting the company's market capitalization relative to the value of its Bitcoin reserves per share, has dropped to 0.72. This is a low comparable to levels from May 2022, when Bitcoin was trading around $31,000.
It is important to understand: the mNAV low is not the price bottom of Bitcoin. As Zhouer himself correctly noted, this indicator can lead the price by six months. Last time, after the mNAV low was reached in May 2022, Bitcoin fell another 50% — to $15,650 by November of that year. Now, with the current price around $61,300, a drop to $42,000 would be approximately 30%, which is a realistic scenario within the current bearish cycle.
Cyclicality as the Basis of the Forecast
Zhouer uses a four-year cycle model, comparing phases of growth and decline to the diminishing bounces of a ball. According to his calculations, the bottom of the current decline could fall on October 31, 2026. The miner himself has already taken short positions and plans to return to buying only at the bottom.
Arthur Hayes, for his part, expects a drop to $40,000 within the next six months. His approach is more tactical: he uses put spreads for hedging, but maintains a long-term bullish outlook, forecasting a rise above $200,000 by the end of the year. However, this stance suggests that even the most optimistic players are preparing for a temporary but deep correction.
My expert opinion: Consensus between miners and traders is a rare phenomenon, and it should be taken seriously. The $42,000 level looks technically justified, especially given the overheating in the altcoin market and uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment. However, I would not rule out that the bottom could be lower — around $38,000 — if pressure from regulators or macroeconomic risks intensify. The main thing is not to catch a falling knife, but to wait for confirmation from the mNAV indicator and trading volumes.