The OpenAI IPO is in question: SpaceX's volatility prompts the board to reconsider plans
OpenAI's management is urging caution regarding the timing of the company's stock market debut, with the primary catalyst for this decision being SpaceX's highly volatile debut. Elon Musk's high-profile IPO, which soared to the stratosphere and then crashed just as quickly, has become a stark warning for the entire high-tech sector.
On the Polymarket platform, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 at 30–40%. This forecast reflects growing market skepticism toward large-scale placements in the artificial intelligence sector under current macroeconomic conditions.
SpaceX: From Euphoria to Collapse — A Lesson for All
SpaceX placed shares at a price of $135 each as part of a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11, 2026. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), shares started at the $150 mark, and by June 17, the price had soared above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization above $2 trillion. However, the frenzy quickly faded. By June 26, SPCX was trading around $152.86, having almost completely lost all its initial gains after a series of double-digit percentage declines.
This volatility — first a rapid surge, then a pullback of 25–30% — is now, according to insiders, directly influencing the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors.
OpenAI Leaning Toward Delaying the Placement
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8 but immediately stated that the timing of the public offering has not yet been determined. "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," OpenAI stated.
According to available information, Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar suggests waiting until 2027. Her arguments include the enormous costs of computing infrastructure and the complexities associated with transitioning to public reporting. CEO Sam Altman, on the other hand, insists on a faster market entry, and this divergence of opinions is creating additional tension within the company.
Why This Matters for Investors
Even the most high-profile placements now face a harsh assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends. OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — with such high expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes.
Cryptalist Analysis: The situation surrounding OpenAI is a classic example of the conflict between growth ambitions and market reality. The SpaceX case showed that even the biggest names are not immune to corrections. Postponing the IPO to 2027 could be a strategically sound decision: a more mature business with sustainable revenues from AI technologies will be valued much higher by the market than a "raw" asset during a period of cooling interest in "growth at any cost" strategies.