Bitcoin is preparing for a deep correction: Chinese miner and Hayes agree on a forecast of up to $40,000
The Bitcoin market is on the verge of a significant correction, a conclusion reached by two authoritative players with completely different approaches. One of China's largest miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool, Jiang Zhuoer, predicts that the local bottom of the first cryptocurrency will be reached in the range of $42,000–$44,000 by the end of 2026. His analysis almost mirrors a recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who suggests a drop to $40,000 within the next six months.
Bearish Signal from MSTR: mNAV Drops to 2022 Lows
Jiang's main argument is the mNAV metric of Strategy (ticker MSTR), which is currently at 0.72. This indicator reflects the ratio of the company's market capitalization to its Bitcoin holdings per share. A value below 1.0 means the market values the company cheaper than its own Bitcoin stash — a classic bearish signal.
The current drop in mNAV to nearly 0.7 mirrors the low of May 2022, when the indicator fell to record lows. At that time, Bitcoin was trading around $31,000 but continued to fall to $15,650 by the end of November amid the FTX collapse. Jiang emphasizes that the mNAV low is not a precise price target but rather a sentiment indicator that can precede the actual bottom by six months or more.
"The mNAV low is not yet the price low for Bitcoin," the miner adds.
He determines the timing using the four-year cycle model, comparing it to the diminishing bounces of a ball. According to this logic, the bottom of the current decline could occur on October 31, 2026. Jiang, who has already experienced several halvings, is currently holding short positions and plans to resume buying only at the bottom.
Arthur Hayes: Tactical Bet on a Decline, but Target is $200,000
Arthur Hayes reached a similar conclusion but via a different path. In an interview with blogger EllioTrades on June 12, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, this is more of a tactical rather than a fundamental bet. Hayes is hedging his positions through put spreads, but overall still expects growth — by the end of the year, he anticipates a price above $200,000.
At the time of analysis, Bitcoin was trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in a day. The range Jiang mentions is roughly 30% below this level, while Hayes' $40,000 target implies a drop of nearly 35%. The key question is whether mNAV will repeat the 2022 history and precede the price by six months. If so, we face a prolonged correction that could significantly reshape the market landscape.
My expert opinion: The coincidence of forecasts from a miner and a trader using different methodologies is a powerful signal for the market. However, it's worth remembering that both players remain bulls in the long term. Current bearish bets are more of a strategy to accumulate at a better price than a denial of Bitcoin's future growth.