OpenAI hesitates: IPO postponed due to lessons from SpaceX
OpenAI's management, according to the latest signals from insider circles, strongly recommends reconsidering the timeline for going public. The reason is none other than the dramatic and highly instructive experience of SpaceX's recent IPO. The story of the space giant has become a stark warning for anyone considering large-scale listings in the high-tech sector.
On the Polymarket platform, traders are already estimating the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an initial public offering before the end of 2026 in the range of 30–40%. These figures speak volumes about the prevailing skepticism in the market, especially amid large bets.
SpaceX Lesson: From Euphoria to Disappointment
SpaceX went public on June 11, 2026, with an IPO of $75 billion, placing shares at $135. The first day of trading (ticker SPCX) saw a start at $150, and by June 17, the price had soared above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization beyond $2 trillion. However, this surge proved rapid but short-lived.
Within just a few days, the situation changed dramatically. By June 26, SpaceX shares were trading around $152.86 — virtually unchanged from the offering price — following a series of double-digit percentage declines. This volatility — a sharp rise followed by a 25–30% pullback — is now, according to insiders, directly influencing the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors.
Internal Debates: When to Go Public?
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8 but immediately noted that the timeline for the public offering has not yet been determined. The company states it is not in a hurry because "there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company." Sarah Friar, according to available information, suggests waiting until 2027, citing huge expenses, the need for investments in computing infrastructure, and the complexities of public reporting.
Notably, CEO Sam Altman's opinion diverges from his colleagues — he insists on a faster market entry. Internal sources note that the SpaceX case only heightens the concerns of market participants.
Analysis: Why This Is Critically Important
Even the most high-profile listings now face a harsh assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends. OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — with such high expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes. The window for going public remains open, but the situation is highly uncertain.
My comment: The SpaceX story is a classic example of "hyperinflation of expectations" followed by a reality check. For OpenAI, whose valuation already borders on the fantastical, a repeat of this scenario could turn into a reputational disaster. Delaying the IPO is not a sign of weakness but, on the contrary, a mature step. A more sustainable listing, backed by real revenues from AI technologies rather than promises, could yield historic returns — but only if the company proves the viability of its business model amid waning interest in the "growth at any cost" strategy.