Bearish signal from MSTR: Bitcoin could crash to $42,000 by 2026 — miner and Hayes' opinions align
The Bitcoin market is entering a dangerous phase. One of the most influential Chinese miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool, Jian Zhouer, has published a forecast predicting that the local bottom of the first cryptocurrency will be in the range of $42,000–$44,000. According to his estimates, this level will be reached by the end of 2026.
Notably, his conclusions are almost identical to the recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who also predicted a drop in Bitcoin to $40,000 within the next six months. Two such different players—a miner and a veteran trader—are arriving at the same point. This is a worrying signal for the market.
Signal from MSTR: mNAV has fallen to 2022 lows
Zhouer's main argument is the mNAV indicator of Strategy (ticker MSTR). Currently, this ratio, which reflects the market price of shares relative to the value of Bitcoin per share, stands at 0.72. This means the market values the company cheaper than the volume of its own BTC reserve.
A value below 1.0 is always a bearish signal. However, the current situation is unique: mNAV has almost reached the low of May 2022, when Bitcoin was worth around $31,000. But then, as Zhouer reminds us, the true bottom came only six months later—at $15,650 after the FTX collapse. The miner emphasizes: "The mNAV low is not yet the Bitcoin price low." This is a key warning for anyone expecting a quick reversal.
Cyclicality and timeframes
Jian determines his timeline based on the four-year cycle model, comparing the dynamics to the diminishing bounces of a ball. According to this logic, the local bottom of the current decline could fall on October 31, 2026. The miner himself, who has already survived several halvings, is currently holding short positions and plans to return to buying only at the bottom.
Arthur Hayes: Tactical bet on a decline
Arthur Hayes reached a similar conclusion but via a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, his position is more tactical. He is hedging long positions with put spreads, but overall still expects growth above $200,000 by the end of the year.
At the time of writing the analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The $42,000–$44,000 range indicated by Zhouer is approximately 30% below current levels, while Hayes' $40,000 mark implies a drop of nearly 35%.
Expert opinion from Cryptalist: The convergence of forecasts from such different players—a miner with years of experience and a derivatives veteran—cannot be a coincidence. The market is clearly overheated, and the MSTR mNAV indicator is not just a technical signal but an indicator of institutional investor sentiment. If mNAV continues to fall, Bitcoin will likely follow with a lag of several months. The current correction could be deeper and longer than most expect.