OpenAI is leaning toward postponing its IPO until 2027: lessons from SpaceX's volatile startup journey
OpenAI's leadership, as I've learned from insider sources, strongly advises caution regarding the timeline for the company's initial public offering (IPO). The reason for this caution was the turbulent and highly unstable debut of SpaceX on the stock market, which clearly demonstrated the risks of large-scale offerings in the high-tech and artificial intelligence sectors.
On the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 at 30–40%. This indicator reflects the prevailing market skepticism, despite the enormous expectations surrounding the company.
SpaceX: A phenomenal rise and a painful fall
SpaceX placed shares at a price of $135 each as part of a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11, 2026. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), the shares started at $150, and by June 17, the price had soared above $225, temporarily giving the company a market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion. It was a true frenzy.
However, the market euphoria quickly turned to disappointment. SpaceX shares almost completely lost their initial gains and sharply declined. As of June 26, SPCX is trading around $152.86 — almost unchanged from the offering price. This followed several days of double-digit percentage drops. Such volatility — first a surge, then a pullback of 25–30% — is now, according to insiders, directly influencing the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors.
Internal disagreements at OpenAI
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8, but immediately indicated that the timeline for the public offering has not yet been determined. "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," the company stated.
Sarah Friar, according to insiders, suggests waiting until 2027. The motivation is the enormous costs of computing infrastructure and the complexities of public reporting. At the same time, CEO Sam Altman holds the opposite position, insisting on a faster market entry. Thus, a serious conflict of strategies is brewing within the company.
Why this is critically important for investors
Even the most high-profile offerings now have to face a harsh assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends. OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — with such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes.
The window for OpenAI to go public remains open, but the situation is extremely uncertain. Key factors will be the recovery of SpaceX shares in July, possible moves by Anthropic, and OpenAI's own quarterly results.
My expert assessment: Postponing the IPO to 2027 is not a sign of weakness, but a display of maturity. In the current macroeconomic and regulatory environment, where investors are tired of "growth at any cost" strategies, a more sustainable and well-prepared listing could yield historical returns. However, the delay also gives competitors, like Anthropic, precious time to capture market share. The stakes are high, and the bet is on the future of the entire AI industry.