Bitcoin on the path to $42,000: Chinese miner and Hayes agree on the day
The Bitcoin market is preparing for a major correction, and judging by the latest signals, the local bottom could be much deeper than many expect. One of the most authoritative Chinese miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool Jiang Zhuoer, has voiced a forecast that almost coincides with a recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes. Both experts agree that Bitcoin could fall to the $42,000–$44,000 level, potentially occurring by the end of 2026.
Bearish Signal from Strategy Shares
Jiang's main argument is an anomaly in the valuation of shares of the company Strategy (ticker MSTR). The mNAV indicator, which reflects the ratio of the market value of shares to the amount of Bitcoin on the company's balance sheet per share, has now dropped to nearly 0.7. This is the lowest value since May 2022, when Bitcoin was trading around $31,000 and then crashed to $15,650 amid the FTX collapse.
Jiang interprets this as a bearish signal but emphasizes that the mNAV minimum is not a precise indication of the Bitcoin price bottom. It only indicates that the market is valuing the company cheaper than its own BTC holdings, which historically preceded further declines in the asset. Between the two points—the mNAV minimum and the actual Bitcoin bottom—about six months passed in the last cycle.
Cyclical Model and Timing
To determine timing, Jiang uses a four-year cycle model, which he compares to the diminishing bounces of a ball. According to this logic, the bottom of the current decline could fall on October 31, 2026. The miner himself is already holding short positions and plans to return to buying only at the bottom.
Hayes: Tactical Bet on $40,000
Arthur Hayes, in turn, reached a similar conclusion but by a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, his bet is more tactical than fundamental. Hayes is hedging positions through put spreads, but overall still expects growth—by the end of the year, he anticipates a price above $200,000.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The $42,000 level mentioned by Jiang implies a drop of about 30%, while Hayes' $40,000 mark represents nearly a 35% decline from current values.
My analysis: The coincidence of forecasts from two such different market participants—a miner with years of experience and a former head of the largest derivatives exchange—deserves attention. However, the key question is whether the mNAV will repeat its leading signal from 2022. If so, Bitcoin may go through another painful consolidation period before starting a new bullish impulse.