OpenAI is hesitating: IPO in question after SpaceX's volatile start
Internal sources close to OpenAI's board of directors are signaling growing caution regarding the timeline for an initial public offering (IPO). The reason is the recent, highly volatile stock market debut of SpaceX, which clearly demonstrated the risks associated with listing large high-tech companies under current market conditions.
On the Polymarket platform, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not go public before the end of 2026 at 30-40%. This forecast reflects prevailing market skepticism, despite the enormous bets placed on the company's success.
Lessons from SpaceX: A Turbulent Rise and Sharp Fall
SpaceX conducted a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11, 2026, pricing shares at $135. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), shares opened at $150 and by June 17 had surged above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization above $2 trillion. However, euphoria quickly turned to disappointment. By June 26, SPCX was trading around $152.86 — virtually unchanged from the offering price — following a series of double-digit percentage declines.
This dynamic — rapid growth followed by a 25-30% pullback — is now, according to insiders, directly influencing the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors, prompting them to reconsider their own plans.
Internal Debates: When to Go Public?
OpenAI filed a confidential registration with the SEC on June 8 but immediately emphasized that the timeline for the public offering has not yet been determined. "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," OpenAI stated. According to available information, CFO Sarah Friar is advocating for a delay until 2027, citing enormous expenses on computing infrastructure and the complexities of public reporting. Meanwhile, CEO Sam Altman is pushing for a faster market entry.
Why This Matters for Investors?
Even the most high-profile listings are now facing strict scrutiny of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends. OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — at such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes. The window for OpenAI's IPO remains open, but the situation is extremely uncertain.
Cryptalist Analysis: SpaceX's volatility is a wake-up call for the entire sector. If even Elon Musk's "people's IPO" faced such a pullback, then for OpenAI, whose business model has yet to prove sustainable profitability, the risks are colossal. Delaying the IPO until 2027 could be a reasonable strategy, allowing the company to demonstrate real revenue from AI technologies and win the trust of investors tired of "growth at any cost" strategies. Keep an eye on SpaceX's recovery and OpenAI's quarterly results — they will be key indicators.