Bitcoin on its way to $42,000? Miner consensus and former BitMEX head point to a deep correction
The Bitcoin market is once again at the center of bearish forecasts. One of the most authoritative Chinese miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool Jiang Zhuoer, expressed the opinion that the local bottom of the first cryptocurrency will be in the range of $42,000–44,000. Notably, this forecast is almost identical to the recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who expects a drop to $40,000.
Jiang Zhuoer's key argument is the bearish signal coming from the shares of Strategy (ticker MSTR). The analyst points to a critical drop in the company's mNAV (adjusted net asset value) indicator to 0.72. This indicator reflects the ratio of MSTR's market price to the value of bitcoins per share. A value below 1.0 means the market values the company cheaper than its own BTC holdings.
The current decline in mNAV to nearly 0.7 repeats the lows of May 2022, when the indicator reached record low values. Jiang Zhuoer interprets this as a powerful signal, but emphasizes that it is not a precise time reference. History shows that last time, after mNAV hit its low in May 2022 with BTC around $31,000, the market continued to fall to $15,650 in November of the same year amid the collapse of the FTX exchange. About six months passed between these events.
Bearish mNAV Signal: Leading Indicator or False Alarm?
Jiang Zhuoer himself notes: "It must be considered that the mNAV low is not yet the low of the Bitcoin price." He builds his timeframe based on the four-year cycle model, comparing it to the dampening bounces of a ball. According to this logic, the bottom of the current decline could fall on October 31, 2026. The miner, who has already experienced several halvings, currently holds short positions and plans to return to buying only at the bottom.
Arthur Hayes, in turn, reached a similar conclusion but by a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 in the next six months. However, it is important to understand the context: Hayes views this scenario as a tactical correction, not a fundamental trend reversal. He is hedging his position with put spreads, but overall still expects a rise to $200,000 by the end of the year.
At the time of analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in a day. The $42,000–44,000 level from Jiang Zhuoer is approximately 30% below current prices, and Hayes's $40,000 mark implies a drop of nearly 35%.
Expert Opinion: The convergence of forecasts from two such different but deeply industry-immersed figures—a miner and a former exchange head—deserves attention. The drop in mNAV to 2022 lows is a historically significant signal that cannot be ignored. However, I would not rush to definitive conclusions. The market is currently under the influence of many macroeconomic factors, and the "dampening bounces" of the cyclical model could be disrupted. The key question is whether mNAV will repeat history and precede the actual BTC bottom by six months. If so, we face another difficult period for the market, but behind it lie excellent entry opportunities.