OpenAI is reconsidering its IPO timeline: SpaceX's instability serves as a warning for the entire AI sector.
OpenAI's leadership is urging caution regarding the company's timeline for going public, following SpaceX's turbulent but unstable start. This case highlights the risks of large stock offerings in the artificial intelligence sector, where investor expectations often outpace actual financial performance.
On the Polymarket platform, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 at 30–40%. This forecast reflects skepticism in a market where bets on future technology are becoming increasingly cautious.
SpaceX: A Turbulent Start — A Sharp Decline
SpaceX priced its shares at $135 each in a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11, 2026. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), quotes started at $150, and by June 17, the price had risen above $225, temporarily exceeding a market capitalization of $2 trillion.
However, the market situation changed rapidly. SpaceX shares almost completely lost their initial gains and sharply declined. As of June 26, SPCX is trading around $152.86 — nearly unchanged from the offering price after several days of double-digit percentage drops.
This volatility — first rapid growth, then a 25–30% pullback — is now, according to insiders, influencing the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors.
OpenAI Leans Toward Delaying the Offering
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8 but immediately indicated that the timeline for the public offering has not yet been determined. "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," OpenAI stated.
Sarah Friar, according to insiders, suggests waiting until 2027 amid high expenses, the need to invest in computing infrastructure, and the complexities of public reporting. CEO Sam Altman's opinion diverges from his colleagues — he insists on a faster market entry.
The SpaceX case heightens concerns among market participants: even the most high-profile offerings now face a harsh assessment of profitability and risks once the local hype subsides.
Why This Matters for Investors
OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — at such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes. The window for OpenAI to go public is still open, but the situation remains uncertain.
Analytical commentary from Cryptalist: In the current macroeconomic environment, where investors are increasingly focusing on fundamental indicators rather than promises, delaying the IPO could be a strategically sound decision for OpenAI. This would give the company time to demonstrate sustainable monetization of its AI products, which is critical for attracting long-term capital. However, dragging out the process also carries risks, especially if competitors, such as Anthropic, seize the moment and enter the public market first.