Bearish consensus: Chinese miner and Arthur Hayes agree on a $40,000–44,000 range for Bitcoin
The Bitcoin market is entering a phase that is generating increasingly alarming signals from industry insiders. One of the most authoritative Chinese miners, the founder of the BTC.TOP pool, recently presented his forecast, according to which the local bottom of the first cryptocurrency will fall in the range of $42,000–$44,000. This level, in his estimation, will be reached by the end of 2026. Notably, his conclusions almost coincide with a recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who predicts a correction to $40,000.
The Chinese miner's main argument is the mNAV indicator of Strategy's stock (ticker MSTR). Currently, this multiplier, which reflects the ratio of the stock's market price to the value of Bitcoin per share, has dropped to 0.72. This means the market values the company cheaper than its own BTC holdings. For comparison: in May 2022, when Bitcoin was trading around $31,000, mNAV fell to similar lows. However, BTC then continued to decline to $15,650 by November of that year amid the FTX collapse. The miner rightly emphasizes that the mNAV low is not necessarily the price bottom for Bitcoin itself, but rather a leading indicator.
He derives the time frame from the four-year cycle model, comparing the dynamics to the diminishing bounces of a ball. According to this logic, the bottom of the current correction could occur on October 31, 2026. The miner has already opened short positions and plans to return to buying only at the supposed bottom.
Arthur Hayes, for his part, reached a similar conclusion through a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, his bet is more tactical in nature: he is hedging positions with put spreads but remains a bull overall, expecting growth above $200,000 by the end of the year.
At the time of analysis, BTC is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% over the day. The range indicated by the miner lies approximately 30% below current levels, while Hayes' level suggests a correction of nearly 35%. The key question is whether mNAV will repeat history and lead the price by six months. If so, we face an even deeper plunge than current consensus forecasts suggest.
Expert commentary: The synchronicity of signals from two such different players—a miner with experience of several halvings and a veteran trader—deserves attention. However, I would not rush to bet on an exact match of levels. The market is currently extremely sensitive to the macroeconomic agenda, and any positive shift in liquidity could refute these bearish scenarios. Keep an eye on mNAV as one of the key indicators of sentiment among large holders.