OpenAI postpones IPO: Lessons from SpaceX's "rocket" startup and the new reality for the AI sector
OpenAI's management is demonstrating unprecedented caution regarding a public market listing. The reason is not merely a "difficult market," but a specific and highly illustrative case—the volatile IPO launch of SpaceX. This incident has become a warning signal for OpenAI's board of directors, which is now leaning towards postponing its own offering until at least 2027.
SpaceX: From Trillion to Price in Two Weeks
The SpaceX story unfolded rapidly and dramatically. Elon Musk's company listed shares at $135 each as part of a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11, 2026. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), the stock started at $150, and by June 17, the price had soared above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization past the $2 trillion mark. However, the euphoria gave way to a sharp decline. By June 26, SPCX was trading around $152.86, having almost completely lost all its initial gains and returned to the offering price. Double-digit percentage drops over several days shocked the market.
It is this story—a sharp rise followed by an equally sharp 25-30% pullback—that became the key argument for the "doves" on OpenAI's board. Insiders confirm: having seen how quickly market hype can evaporate even for such a "high-profile" asset, OpenAI's management decided not to take the risk.
Internal Split and Bet on Polymarket
On the decentralized platform Polymarket, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 at 30-40%. This reflects deep market skepticism. Internally, the company is divided. Sarah Friar, according to sources, suggests waiting until 2027, arguing the need for massive investments in computing infrastructure and difficulties with public reporting. Her position resonates with those who see the risks of an "overheated" market. Meanwhile, CEO Sam Altman insists on a faster stock market listing, creating serious tension within top management.
Notably, OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8, but immediately noted that the timing of the public offering has not yet been determined. "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," OpenAI stated.
Why Is This Critical for Investors?
Even the most high-profile offerings now face a tough assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends. OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion—at such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes. The SpaceX case clearly showed: even a "rocket-like" start can end with a rapid return to earth. The window for OpenAI's listing is still open, but it is narrowing. The situation remains uncertain, and I believe that postponing the IPO is not a sign of weakness, but a mark of management maturity. In the current market conditions, where interest in the "growth at any cost" strategy is waning, a more sustainable listing could yield historical returns, but only if the company proves the viability of its AI technologies and can monetize them under strict cost control. Keep an eye on SpaceX's recovery in July, potential moves by Anthropic, and OpenAI's quarterly results—these factors will be decisive.