A bearish signal from MSTR: Bitcoin is poised to drop to $42,000 — expert analysis
The Bitcoin market is once again under pressure from bearish forecasts. One of China's leading miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool Jiang Zhuor, presented his analysis, according to which the local bottom of the first cryptocurrency will fall in the range of $42,000–44,000. Notably, his estimate is almost identical to the recent forecast of BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who expects a drop to $40,000.
Zhuor's key argument is the mNAV indicator of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). This metric, reflecting the ratio of MSTR's market stock price to the value of Bitcoin per share, has now dropped to 0.72. This means the market values the company cheaper than its own Bitcoin holdings. Historically, similar mNAV levels (around 0.7) were observed in May 2022, which foreshadowed a further decline in BTC. Back then, after the signal from mNAV, Bitcoin continued to fall for another six months, reaching a bottom near $15,650 amid the FTX collapse.
Cyclicality and Timing: When to Expect the Bottom?
Zhuor applies a four-year cycle model, comparing the current dynamics to "dampening ball bounces." According to his logic, the bottom of the current downward movement could fall on October 31, 2026. It is important to emphasize that the miner himself views the mNAV minimum only as a signal, not as a precise time reference for the Bitcoin price. Meanwhile, he already holds short positions and plans to return to buying only at the bottom.
Arthur Hayes, for his part, reached a similar conclusion but by a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, his bet is more tactical in nature: he hedges positions with put spreads but overall maintains a bullish outlook for the long term, expecting a price above $200,000 by the end of the year.
At the time of analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in the last 24 hours. Zhuor's projected range ($42,000–44,000) is roughly 30% below current levels, while Hayes' level ($40,000) implies a drop of nearly 35%. The key question for the market is whether mNAV will repeat the historical pattern and lead the price by six months. If so, we face a prolonged correction with the potential to reach these targets.
My expert opinion: The convergence of forecasts from such different players—a miner and an institutional trader—strengthens the bearish scenario. However, it is important to remember that historical parallels do not guarantee repetition. The market is currently influenced by many macroeconomic factors, and a drop to $42,000 could be merely an intermediate stage before a new rally, rather than the cycle's endpoint. Investors should prepare for increased volatility and carefully manage risks.