OpenAI postpones IPO: lessons from SpaceX volatility and a shift in strategy
OpenAI's board of directors is reconsidering the timeline for going public, and according to my data, the company is increasingly leaning toward postponing its IPO to 2027. The reason is not just caution, but the direct influence of SpaceX's recent experience, whose offering turned into a classic example of institutional-level "pump and dump."
SpaceX as a Warning: From $2 Trillion to the Offering Price
On June 11, 2026, SpaceX conducted the largest IPO in history, placing shares at $135 each and raising $75 billion. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), the stock soared to $150, and by June 17, it peaked above $225, temporarily valuing the company at over $2 trillion. However, by June 26, the shares had crashed back to around $152.86 — nearly the offering price. Double-digit percentage declines over several days erased all the initial gains.
Such volatility — a sharp rise followed by a 25-30% pullback — became a warning signal for OpenAI's management. Insiders confirm that the SpaceX case is directly discussed at board meetings as an argument against rushing.
Internal Disagreements: Fryar vs. Altman
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8, but immediately made it clear that the timeline was uncertain. CFO Sarah Fryar insists on postponing until 2027, citing massive spending on computing infrastructure and the complexities of public reporting. CEO Sam Altman, on the other hand, demands a faster market entry. This split reflects a fundamental dilemma: a company with a private valuation of $850 billion cannot afford a failure on the public market.
Traders on Polymarket already estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 at 30-40%. This indicates deep market skepticism.
Why This Matters for Investors
Even the most high-profile offerings now face a harsh assessment of profitability after the lock-up period ends. The market no longer forgives a "growth at any cost" strategy. OpenAI, attracting an $850 billion private valuation, must demonstrate not just ambition, but real cash flows from AI technologies.
My analysis: Postponing the IPO to 2027 is a reasonable, albeit risky, move. It gives OpenAI time to stabilize revenues and avoid SpaceX's fate, where investors who bought at the highs were left empty-handed. But if the company fails to show sustainable monetization, even a delay won't save it from the cold shower of the public market. Keep an eye on OpenAI's quarterly results and potential moves by Anthropic — they will be indicators of the sector's readiness for maturity.