Bearish Consensus: Bitcoin Could Crash to $42,000 Amid Signals from MSTR
The cryptocurrency market is preparing for a serious correction. My analysis shows that the consensus among key industry players regarding the local bottom of Bitcoin is becoming increasingly evident. One of the leading Chinese miners, the founder of the BTC.TOP pool, predicts the first cryptocurrency will fall to the range of $42,000–$44,000. According to his estimates, this event will occur by the end of 2026.
Key bearish signal: mNAV Strategy
The main argument for this scenario is the critical decline in the mNAV (modified net asset value) indicator of Strategy (ticker MSTR). This multiplier reflects the ratio of the company's stock market price to the amount of Bitcoin per share. Currently, mNAV has dropped to 0.72, nearly matching the lows of May 2022. When this indicator is below 1.0, the market values the company cheaper than its own Bitcoin holdings — an extremely bearish signal.
The last time mNAV hit a bottom was in May 2022, with Bitcoin priced around $31,000. However, the asset then continued to fall to $15,650 in November of that year amid the collapse of the FTX exchange. The gap between these points was about six months. As the miner rightly notes, the mNAV low is not yet the Bitcoin price low.
Cyclical model and timing
The timing of the forecast is based on a four-year cycle model, which the analyst compares to the diminishing bounces of a ball. According to this logic, the bottom of the current downward movement could fall on October 31, 2026. The miner himself has already opened short positions and plans to return to buying only at the bottom.
Convergent forecast from BitMEX co-founder
Notably, Arthur Hayes arrived at a similar conclusion, but by a different route. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, his bet is more tactical than fundamental. Hayes is hedging positions with put spreads, but overall still expects a rise to $200,000 by the end of the year.
At the time of writing the analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in a day. The $42,000 level implies a drop of about 30% from current values, and Hayes' $40,000 mark represents nearly 35%.
My expert opinion: The convergence of forecasts from such different players — a miner with years of experience navigating halvings and a veteran of the derivatives market — deserves attention. However, the key question is whether mNAV will repeat history and lead the price by six months. If so, we face a prolonged but not catastrophic bear market. If not, the correction could be deeper and faster. In any case, the current market configuration requires investors to exercise heightened caution and be prepared for volatility.