OpenAI's IPO under threat of collapse: lessons from SpaceX's volatility force a strategy change
The high-tech IPO market is facing a moment of truth. SpaceX's high-profile but extremely volatile stock market debut has forced OpenAI's leadership to seriously reconsider its own plans for going public. Insiders report that the company's board of directors is now leaning toward postponing the listing until at least 2027, fearing a repeat of the "rocket launched and crashed" scenario.
The SpaceX Case Study: From Euphoria to Disappointment
Let me recall the key figures. SpaceX conducted a massive IPO on June 11, 2026, placing shares at $135 each with a valuation of $75 billion. The first days of trading were spectacular: the price soared above $225, and the market capitalization briefly exceeded $2 trillion. However, by June 26, the shares (ticker SPCX) had crashed back to $152.86, almost completely losing all their initial gains. Within days, the securities lost 25-30% of their value. Such volatility is a classic example of a "local bubble" that bursts as soon as retail investors start asking uncomfortable questions about fundamental metrics.
OpenAI's Position: Caution Above All
Against this backdrop, OpenAI, which filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8, has taken a wait-and-see approach. A rift is brewing within the company. CEO Sam Altman insists on a faster stock market listing, seeking to capitalize on the current hype around AI. However, CFO Sarah Fryer, according to sources, is lobbying for a postponement until 2027. Her arguments are weighty: colossal expenses on computing infrastructure, difficulties with public reporting, and, most importantly, the need to show the market a sustainable business model, not just a "growth at any cost story."
Traders on Polymarket already estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 at 30-40%. This reflects deep skepticism within the professional community.
My Analysis: Why This Matters for Every Investor
The situation around OpenAI is a litmus test for the entire artificial intelligence sector. The company's latest private valuation reached $850 billion. With such high expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes. The SpaceX case clearly showed that even the biggest names can face a harsh revaluation after the lock-up period expires. For crypto investors accustomed to high volatility, this is an excellent lesson: hype does not equal profit.
Expert's Conclusion: The postponement of OpenAI's IPO is not a sign of weakness, but a sign of maturity. The company is choosing between "quick money" and a "long life" on the public market. If the listing takes place in 2027, provided that real, rather than promised, revenues from AI technologies are demonstrated, it could become a historic moment. But if the market continues to "punish" inflated valuations, as it did with SpaceX, then even a postponement won't save it — investors will simply lose interest in the "growth at any cost" strategy. Keep an eye on Anthropic's quarterly reports and the recovery of SPCX in July — that will be the best indicator of sentiment.