Bearish consensus: Bitcoin could test the $40,000 – $44,000 zone by the end of 2026
The cryptocurrency market continues to receive signals of a possible deep correction. This time, one of the largest Chinese miners—founder of the BTC.TOP pool, Jiang Zhouer—has joined the forecast of Bitcoin falling to the $40,000–$44,000 range. His target zone almost coincides with the recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who suggested BTC could drop to $40,000.
Signal from mNAV: MicroStrategy's Strategic Indicator
Jiang bases his bearish forecast on the dynamics of the mNAV (adjusted net asset value) indicator of the company Strategy (ticker MSTR). According to his assessment, this indicator is currently around 0.72. This means the market values the company cheaper than the cost of its own Bitcoin holdings per share. When mNAV falls below 1.0, it is a classic sign of undervaluation.
Currently, mNAV has almost reached the lows of May 2022—the very period when Bitcoin was trading around $31,000 but then collapsed to $15,650 amid the FTX crash. Jiang emphasizes that the mNAV low is not an exact price for Bitcoin, but rather an early warning signal. The gap between these two points in 2022 was about six months.
Cyclical Model and Timeframes
To determine the timing of a possible bottom, Jiang uses a four-year cycle model, comparing it to the diminishing bounces of a ball. According to this logic, the local bottom of the current downward movement could fall on October 31, 2026. The miner himself, who has already survived several halvings, is currently holding short positions and plans to resume purchases precisely at this bottom.
Arthur Hayes: Tactical Defense, Not a Fundamental Reversal
Arthur Hayes reached a similar conclusion but by a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, his bet is more tactical than fundamental. Hayes is hedging positions with put spreads (an options strategy to protect against a decline), but overall maintains a bullish outlook for the end of the year, expecting a price above $200,000.
At the time of analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The $40,000–$44,000 level implies a drop of 30–35% from current values—a scenario that the market has not yet fully priced in.
Cryptalist Analytical Commentary: The coincidence of forecasts from two such different players—a miner with years of experience and an institutional trader—deserves attention. However, it is worth remembering that mNAV in 2022 only preceded the decline, not coincided with it in time. If history repeats itself, the current bearish phase could drag on until the end of 2026, and only then will we see the true bottom. Investors should prepare for volatility and not rule out a deep correction scenario.