SpaceX burned the market: OpenAI reconsiders IPO amid volatility
The public offering market in the high-tech sector is experiencing a moment of sobering. Following the high-profile but extremely volatile debut of SpaceX, OpenAI's management has adopted a wait-and-see approach, signaling a possible delay of its own IPO. This is not just rumor—it is a direct reaction to the lesson the market has taught.
On the Polymarket platform, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an initial public offering before the end of 2026 at 30–40%. Such a high level of skepticism is a direct consequence of recent events that are forcing investors and issuers to reassess risks.
The SpaceX Lesson: From Euphoria to Disappointment
SpaceX went public on June 11, 2026, with a massive $75 billion IPO, placing shares at $135. The first day of trading (ticker SPCX) started at $150, and by June 17, the price had soared above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization over $2 trillion. However, the market euphoria was short-lived.
By June 26, SpaceX shares had almost completely lost all their initial gains, falling back to $152.86. Double-digit percentage declines over several days—and both investors and management received a clear demonstration of how quickly the "novelty premium" can evaporate. According to insiders, such volatility directly influences the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors.
Internal Debates: Rush or Wait?
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8, but immediately noted that the timing of the public offering was not set. A discussion has unfolded within the company. Sarah Friar, according to information from informed sources, suggests waiting until 2027, citing huge expenses on computing infrastructure and the complexities of public reporting. Her position is simple: it is easier to solve strategic problems while remaining a private company.
However, CEO Sam Altman holds a different opinion, insisting on a faster market entry. This split highlights the main dilemma: with a latest private valuation of $850 billion, the public market does not forgive mistakes, but waiting too long means risking missing the window of opportunity.
Conclusion for Investors
Even the most high-profile offerings now face a harsh assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends. The SpaceX case has served as a wake-up call for the entire AI sector. The window for OpenAI's exit is still open, but the situation remains highly uncertain.
My expertise: Postponing the IPO to 2027 looks like a strategically sound move. SpaceX has clearly shown that even with enormous interest, the market can "punish" inflated expectations. OpenAI needs not just impressive quarterly figures, but proof of sustainable monetization of AI technologies. Rushing now could cost the company tens of billions of dollars in market capitalization. A more mature and stable listing is not a waste of time, but a guarantee of historical returns for long-term investors.