Bitcoin is preparing for a correction to $42,000: a signal from a Chinese miner and Arthur Hayes
The bitcoin market is once again on the verge of a significant correction. One of the largest Chinese miners, Jiang Zhouer, founder of the BTC.TOP pool, predicts that the local bottom of the first cryptocurrency will be in the range of $42,000–$44,000. According to his estimates, this level will be reached by the end of 2026. Notably, his forecast almost coincides with a recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who expects a decline to $40,000.
Jiang Zhouer's main argument is a bearish signal coming from shares of Strategy (ticker MSTR). He draws attention to the mNAV indicator, which reflects the ratio of the company's market value of shares to the amount of bitcoin per share. Currently, mNAV has dropped to nearly 0.7 — the same low as in May 2022, when it reached record lows. Jiang interprets this as a signal, not a precise timing reference. He emphasizes: "The mNAV low is not yet the bitcoin price low." Last time, when mNAV bottomed in May 2022, bitcoin was worth about $31,000, but then continued to fall to $15,650 by the end of November of that year amid the collapse of the FTX exchange. About six months passed between these two points.
Cyclical Model and Miner Strategy
Jiang Zhouer determines the timing of the bottom using a four-year cycle model, which he compares to the fading bounces of a ball. According to his logic, the bottom of the current decline could occur on October 31, 2026. The miner himself, having already survived several halvings, is currently holding short positions and plans to return to buying at the bottom.
Arthur Hayes: Similar Forecast, Different Strategy
Arthur Hayes reached a similar conclusion but by a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, his bet is more tactical than fundamental. Hayes hedges positions using put spreads, but overall still expects growth — by the end of the year, he expects the price to be above $200,000.
At the time of writing the analysis, bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in a day. The range Jiang mentions lies about 30% below this mark, and Hayes' $40,000 level implies a drop of nearly 35%. The key question now is whether mNAV will repeat history and precede the price by six months, as it did in 2022. This will determine the trajectory of bitcoin's movement closer to the end of 2026.
My expert opinion: The convergence of forecasts from such different figures as a Chinese miner and the founder of BitMEX is a serious signal for the market. However, it is important to remember that mNAV is a sentiment indicator, not an accurate price predictor. If history repeats itself, we face not only a correction to $42,000 but also a subsequent deep decline that could catch many bulls off guard.