OpenAI hesitates: IPO in question due to SpaceX turbulence and internal disagreements
OpenAI's management is urging caution regarding the timing of its IPO, with SpaceX's volatile debut being a key factor. This case clearly demonstrates the risks that major tech listings face in current market conditions.
On the Polymarket platform, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 at 30–40%. This forecast reflects growing market skepticism, where bets are becoming increasingly conservative.
SpaceX: A Lesson in High Volatility
SpaceX placed shares at $135 each in a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11, 2026. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), the price started at $150 and by June 17 had soared above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization above $2 trillion.
However, the situation quickly changed. SpaceX shares almost completely lost their initial gains and sharply declined. As of June 26, SPCX is trading around $152.86 — nearly unchanged from the offering price after a series of double-digit percentage drops.
According to insiders, this dynamic — a rapid rise followed by a 25–30% pullback — is now directly influencing the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors.
Internal Debates and Possible Delay
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8 but immediately emphasized that the timing of the public offering has not yet been determined. "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," OpenAI stated.
According to sources, Sarah Friar suggests waiting until 2027 amid high expenses, the need to invest in computing infrastructure, and the complexities of public reporting. CEO Sam Altman's opinion diverges from his colleagues — he insists on a faster market entry.
The SpaceX case only heightens market participants' concerns: even the most high-profile listings now face a harsh assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends.
Why This Matters for Investors
OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — at such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes. The window for OpenAI's stock market debut remains open, but the situation is still uncertain.
My analysis: Delaying the OpenAI IPO could be a strategically sound move. The market is currently clearly not ready to adequately value companies with huge capital expenditures and an unclear path to profitability. If OpenAI demonstrates sustainable revenue from AI technologies amid declining investor interest in "growth at any cost" strategies, a later but stable listing could yield historic returns. Watch for SpaceX's recovery in July and OpenAI's quarterly results — these signals will be decisive.