Bitcoin is preparing for a 30% drop: Chinese miner and Hayes point to one level
The Bitcoin market may face a serious correction, and two authoritative voices from the industry — Chinese miner Jiang Zhuor and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes — agree in their forecasts. Both analysts see the local bottom of the first cryptocurrency in the range of $40,000–$44,000. This implies a potential drop of nearly 30–35% from current levels.
Jiang Zhuor, founder of the mining pool BTC.TOP, is not just betting on a decline — he is already acting. According to him, he has opened short positions and plans to start active buying only at the bottom. The key indicator he relies on is the mNAV ratio of Strategy (ticker MSTR) shares. This metric reflects the ratio of the market value of the shares to the value of Bitcoin per share. Currently, mNAV has dropped to 0.72, close to the lows of May 2022.
Interestingly, Jiang views this signal more as a bearish indicator rather than a precise timing guide. Last time, when mNAV hit bottom in May 2022, Bitcoin was worth about $31,000, but then continued to fall to $15,650 by November of that year amid the FTX collapse. The miner warns: the mNAV minimum is not yet the Bitcoin price minimum.
Timeframes and Cyclicality
Jiang uses a four-year cycle model, comparing the current dynamics to the fading bounces of a ball. According to his calculations, the bottom of the current decline could fall on October 31, 2026. He emphasizes that his forecast is not an exact date, but rather an indication of a likely scenario based on historical patterns.
Arthur Hayes, for his part, reached a similar conclusion but via a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, his strategy is more tactical: he uses put spreads for hedging, but overall remains bullish, expecting a rise above $200,000 by the end of the year.
At the time of analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The $40,000–$44,000 level cited by both experts is 30–35% below the current price. The key question now is whether mNAV will repeat history and lead the price by six months, as it did in 2022. If so, we are in for another prolonged bearish stretch.
My analysis: The convergence of forecasts from such different players — a miner with years of experience and an institutional trader — deserves attention. However, I would not rush to conclusions. The cryptocurrency market is extremely sensitive to macroeconomic factors, and any positive shift (e.g., a Fed policy easing) could cancel this scenario. Nevertheless, the current mNAV dynamics are a warning signal that cannot be ignored. Investors should prepare for volatility and perhaps consider hedging strategies.