OpenAI hesitates with IPO: lessons from SpaceX volatility and market pressure
OpenAI's leadership is demonstrating extreme caution regarding the timeline for going public, carefully analyzing SpaceX's recent experience. The space company's debut, which began with a powerful rally, turned into a sharp pullback, now serving as a serious warning signal for the entire high-tech listing sector.
On the Polymarket prediction market, the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 is estimated at 30–40%. These figures reflect the growing skepticism of traders and major players who are betting that the company will prefer to wait for a more favorable moment.
SpaceX: From Euphoria to Reality
SpaceX conducted a large-scale IPO on June 11, 2026, placing shares at $135 each with a valuation of $75 billion. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), the stock started at $150, and by June 17, it had soared above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization above $2 trillion. However, this was followed by a rapid correction. By June 26, SpaceX shares were trading around $152.86, nearly returning to the offering price after a series of double-digit declines.
According to insiders, it is this volatility — the surge and subsequent 25-30% drop — that is directly influencing the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors.
Internal Debates and Management's Position
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8, but immediately emphasized that specific dates for the public offering have not yet been determined. The company states: "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company."
According to available data, key figures in management are divided in their opinions. Sarah Friar reportedly suggests postponing the IPO until 2027, citing high costs for computing infrastructure and the complexities of public reporting. Meanwhile, CEO Sam Altman insists on a faster market entry, creating internal tension. The SpaceX case has only heightened market participants' concerns about the ability of even the most high-profile listings to sustain their initial growth.
Why This Is Critically Important for Investors
Even the most ambitious projects now have to face a harsh assessment of profitability and risks after the local hype subsides. OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — with such high expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes.
The window for OpenAI to go public is still open, but the situation remains extremely uncertain. Key indicators will be the recovery of SpaceX shares in July, possible moves by Anthropic, and OpenAI's own quarterly results.
Expert Commentary: Postponing the IPO to 2027 could be a strategically sound decision. A more sustainable listing could yield historic returns if the company demonstrates viable revenues from AI technologies against the backdrop of declining investor interest in "growth at any cost" strategies. The market is tired of promises — it needs numbers.