Bitcoin is preparing for a deep correction: Chinese miner predicts a drop to $42,000
The Bitcoin market is entering a phase of potentially significant correction. One of the most authoritative Chinese miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool, Jiang Zhouer, has presented a bearish forecast, according to which the local bottom of the first cryptocurrency will be found in the range of $42,000–$44,000. According to his estimates, this scenario will materialize by the end of 2026.
Signal from MicroStrategy: mNAV Indicates Overheating
A key argument in favor of such a development is the dynamics of the mNAV (adjusted net asset value) indicator of Strategy (ticker MSTR). Zhouer notes that this indicator, reflecting the ratio of the market price of shares to the amount of Bitcoin per share, has dropped to 0.72. A value below 1.0 means the market is valuing the company cheaper than its own Bitcoin holdings.
The current mNAV has nearly reached the lows of May 2022, when the indicator collapsed to record low values. Last time, this foreshadowed further decline: Bitcoin, trading at around $31,000 at the time, crashed to $15,650 six months later amid the collapse of the FTX exchange. Zhouer emphasizes: "The mNAV low is not yet the Bitcoin price low." This is a warning that the bearish signal may precede the actual price bottom by a significant period.
Cyclical Logic and Consensus with Hayes
To determine the timeframe, the analyst uses a four-year cycle model, comparing the current dynamics to "diminishing ball bounces." According to his calculations, the bottom of the current downward movement could fall on October 31, 2026. Zhouer himself is already holding short positions and plans to return to buying only at the bottom.
Notably, the Chinese miner's forecast almost coincides with a recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes. Using a different approach, he suggested Bitcoin could fall to $40,000 in the next six months. However, Hayes views this as a tactical correction: he is hedging positions with put spreads but remains generally bullish for the end of the year, expecting growth above $200,000.
At the time of analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The $42,000 and $40,000 levels imply a drop of 30–35% from current values.
Cryptalist Expert Opinion: The coincidence of forecasts from two such different but deeply industry-immersed figures—a miner and a veteran trader—deserves close attention. The mNAV indicator indeed looks alarming, but I would not blindly extrapolate the 2022 history. Back then, the market faced a unique cascade of liquidations due to the FTX collapse. Now the market structure is different, with deeper liquidity and institutional participation. However, ignoring this bearish signal would be acting against common sense. A 30% correction within a bull cycle is not a catastrophe but an opportunity. The main question: will mNAV again lead the price by six months, or will the market find the bottom faster this time?