OpenAI delays IPO: lessons from SpaceX volatility and shifting priorities
OpenAI's leadership has taken a pause to reassess the timeline for going public, carefully studying SpaceX's recent experience. The rapid but highly volatile debut of SpaceX served as a powerful wake-up call for OpenAI's board of directors, prompting them to take a more conservative approach to the public offering.
What happened with SpaceX?
SpaceX conducted a massive IPO on June 11, 2026, pricing shares at $135 each with a valuation of $75 billion. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), shares surged to $150, and by June 17, they peaked above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization above $2 trillion. However, this was followed by a sharp collapse. By June 26, shares were trading around $152.86, nearly returning to the offering price after a series of double-digit percentage declines. This volatility—a 66% surge followed by a 25-30% pullback—became the primary cautionary tale for OpenAI.
The market predicts a delay
On the Polymarket platform, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO by the end of 2026 at 30-40%. This figure reflects deep market skepticism. OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8 but immediately emphasized that specific timelines for the public offering have not been determined.
"We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," OpenAI stated. According to insider sources, CFO Sarah Fryer advocates postponing the IPO to 2027, citing enormous expenses on computing infrastructure and the complexities of public reporting. Meanwhile, CEO Sam Altman, on the other hand, insists on a faster market entry.
Why is this important for investors?
OpenAI's latest private valuation has reached $850 billion. With such high expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes. The SpaceX case clearly demonstrates that even the most high-profile offerings face harsh scrutiny of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends.
The window for OpenAI's market debut remains open, but the situation is still uncertain. If the offering is delayed, it could lead to a more sustainable listing. However, to justify historical returns, OpenAI will need to convince investors of the viability of its AI technology revenues amid waning interest in the "growth at any cost" strategy.
Expert opinion from Cryptalist: The delay of OpenAI's IPO is not a sign of weakness but, on the contrary, a demonstration of maturity. In the current macroeconomic environment, where the market punishes overvaluation, it is better to go public later but with a sustainable business model. Investors should monitor the recovery of SpaceX shares in July and OpenAI's quarterly results—these will be key triggers for the final decision.