Bitcoin on its way to $42,000: two market heavyweights agree on the day
The Bitcoin market has once again become the center of attention: two influential players — Chinese miner Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the BTC.TOP pool, and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes — have almost simultaneously pointed to the same target. According to their estimates, the local bottom of the first cryptocurrency could be reached in the range of $40,000–44,000 by the end of 2026. This is not just a coincidence, but a powerful signal that deserves detailed analysis.
Jiang Zhuoer bases his forecast on a bearish signal from the shares of Strategy (ticker MSTR). The key indicator is mNAV, which reflects the ratio of the stock's market value to the amount of Bitcoin per share. Currently, this indicator has dropped to 0.72, close to the lows of May 2022. At that time, mNAV preceded BTC's fall from $31,000 to $15,650 in November of the same year. Zhuoer emphasizes that the mNAV low is not necessarily the price bottom, but it often serves as a leading indicator.
Arthur Hayes reached a similar conclusion, but by a different route. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, his bet is more tactical than fundamental. Hayes uses put spreads to hedge positions, but overall maintains a bullish long-term outlook, expecting a price above $200,000 by the end of the year. Nevertheless, his short-term forecast aligns with Zhuoer's calculations.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The $42,000 level indicated by Zhuoer is approximately 30% below current values, while Hayes' $40,000 mark implies a drop of nearly 35%. If we rely on the four-year cycle model used by the Chinese miner, the bottom could fall on October 31, 2026.
My expert opinion: The coincidence of forecasts from two such different market participants — a miner and a trader — is rare. This is a serious argument in favor of the current correction being deeper than many expect. However, it should not be forgotten: mNAV is a leading indicator, not an exact predictor. If history repeats itself, the price bottom may lag behind the mNAV low by six months. Investors should prepare for volatility, but not panic — such corrections often open up the best entry points.