OpenAI leans toward postponing its IPO: lessons from SpaceX's volatile startup journey and market pressure
OpenAI's leadership, according to my data, is urging caution regarding the company's timeline for going public after SpaceX's turbulent but highly volatile start. This case highlights the serious risks associated with large stock offerings in the AI sector, where investor appetites can shift dramatically.
On the Polymarket platform, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not hold an IPO before the end of 2026 at 30–40%. This forecast clearly indicates market skepticism, despite the enormous stakes surrounding the company.
SpaceX: From Takeoff to Crash in Two Weeks
SpaceX placed shares at $135 each as part of a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11, 2026. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), the price started at $150, and by June 17, it had risen above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization above $2 trillion. However, euphoria quickly turned to disappointment. SpaceX shares almost completely lost their initial gains and sharply declined. As of June 26, SPCX is trading around $152.86 — virtually unchanged from the offering price after a series of double-digit drops.
Such volatility — first rapid growth, then a 25–30% pullback — is now, according to my data, directly influencing the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors. Insiders indicate that this precedent is precisely what is making leadership more cautious.
Internal Disagreements and Uncertainty
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8 but immediately stated that the timeline for the public offering has not yet been determined. "We are not rushing because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," the company stated. Sarah Friar, according to information from informed circles, is suggesting waiting until 2027 amid high expenses, the need to invest in computing infrastructure, and the complexities of public reporting. CEO Sam Altman's opinion diverges from his colleagues — he insists on a faster market entry.
The SpaceX case only heightens market participants' concerns: even the most high-profile offerings now face harsh scrutiny of profitability and risks once the initial hype subsides.
OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — at such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes. The window for OpenAI to go public is still open, but the situation remains highly uncertain.
My analysis: Postponing the IPO to 2027 seems like a reasonable strategy under current conditions. The market is saturated with hype stories, and investors demand real monetization. If OpenAI can demonstrate sustainable revenue from AI technologies, rather than just "growth at any cost," the delay could yield historic returns for early participants. Watch for SpaceX's recovery in July, potential moves by Anthropic, and OpenAI's quarterly results — these will be key indicators.