Bitcoin is preparing for a deep correction: miners and analysts converge on $40,000–$44,000
The Bitcoin market is entering a phase that many participants call a "bear trap." Based on my analysis of cyclical models and market value indicators, the local bottom for the first cryptocurrency could be reached in the range of $42,000–$44,000 by the end of 2026. This forecast aligns with recent statements by renowned Chinese miner Jiang Zhouer, who manages the BTC.TOP pool, as well as estimates from BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who expects a drop to $40,000.
Signal from MicroStrategy Stock: mNAV as a Precursor to Correction
The key indicator I am watching is the mNAV ratio (market value to net asset value) of Strategy (ticker MSTR). This metric compares the company's market capitalization to the amount of Bitcoin per share. Currently, mNAV has dropped to nearly 0.72, close to the lows of May 2022, when Bitcoin was trading around $31,000. However, at that time, the asset continued to fall to $15,650 in November amid the FTX collapse.
It is important to understand: the mNAV low is not necessarily the bottom of Bitcoin's price. This indicator merely signals that the market is valuing the company cheaper than its own BTC holdings. In the past, such a signal preceded a decline by six months. If history repeats itself, we could see a correction to the indicated level by the end of 2026.
Arthur Hayes: Tactical Bet on Decline
Arthur Hayes, whose forecasts are often accurate, also expects a drop to $40,000 in the next six months. However, this is more of a tactical position: he is hedging risks through put spreads, but overall maintains a bullish outlook for the end of the year, predicting a rise above $200,000. The current Bitcoin price is around $61,345, so a drop to $40,000–$44,000 would mean a decline of 30–35%. This is a significant correction, but within the long-term cycle, it appears quite natural.
My professional conclusion: the Bitcoin market is currently in a zone of high uncertainty. The mNAV indicator is a powerful but not absolute tool. If it again precedes the price by six months, as in 2022, the bottom will only be reached by the end of 2026. However, I recommend that investors view current levels as an accumulation zone, not a panic zone. The bearish scenario is an opportunity, not a death sentence.