OpenAI postpones IPO: lessons from SpaceX volatility and the battle for an $850 billion valuation
The public offering market in the high-tech sector is experiencing a moment of turbulence. OpenAI's management, judging by internal signals, is increasingly cautious in assessing the prospects of its own stock market debut. The key catalyst for this restraint was the recent experience of SpaceX — its turbulent but highly unstable debut on the public market.
On the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 in the range of 30–40%. This is a direct reflection of the skepticism that currently dominates the sentiment of major players.
The SpaceX Story: From Euphoria to Correction
SpaceX listed its shares at $135 each as part of a colossal $75 billion IPO on June 11, 2026. On the first day of trading under the ticker SPCX, shares started at $150, and by June 17, they had soared above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization beyond $2 trillion.
However, the rally was short-lived. By June 26, SpaceX shares were trading around $152.86 — nearly returning to the offering price after a series of double-digit percentage declines. Such volatility — a rapid surge followed by a 25–30% pullback — became a warning signal for OpenAI's board of directors.
Internal Disagreements at OpenAI
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8 but immediately emphasized that the timing of the public offering remains uncertain. "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," the company stated.
According to insider information, CFO Sarah Friar suggests waiting until 2027, citing enormous expenses on computing infrastructure and the complexities of public reporting. However, CEO Sam Altman holds the opposite view, insisting on a faster market entry. This split within management only fuels uncertainty.
Why This Is Critical for Investors
Even the most high-profile offerings now face a harsh assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period expires. OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — at such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes.
My analysis: Postponing the IPO to 2027 could be a strategically sound decision. OpenAI needs to prove to the market that its technologies can generate sustainable cash flows, not just hype. We are currently witnessing a paradigm shift: investors are tired of the "growth at any cost" strategy and demand real monetization. If the company can demonstrate viable revenues from AI, the delay could result in historic returns at the time of listing.