Bitcoin is preparing to drop to $42,000: Chinese miner and Arthur Hayes agree
The cryptocurrency market is once again under pressure from bearish sentiment. One of the most authoritative Chinese miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool Jiang Zhuoer, presented his forecast, which aligns with a recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes. According to his estimates, the local bottom for Bitcoin will be in the range of $42,000–$44,000, and it will be reached by the end of 2026.
Bearish Signal from Strategy Shares
Jiang's main argument is the mNAV indicator of the company Strategy (ticker MSTR), which he estimates at 0.72. This indicator reflects the ratio of the company's share price to the amount of Bitcoin per share. When mNAV falls below 1.0, the market values the company cheaper than its own Bitcoin holdings. Currently, mNAV has dropped to nearly 0.7, a low comparable to May 2022.
It is important to note that Jiang interprets this as a signal, not a precise timing reference. Last time, mNAV hit its low in May 2022, when Bitcoin was trading around $31,000. However, the asset continued to decline and by the end of November fell to $15,650 amid the collapse of the FTX exchange. About six months passed between these two points. "It should be noted that the mNAV low is not yet the Bitcoin price low," he added.
Jiang determines the timing based on the four-year cycle model, which he compares to the diminishing bounces of a ball. According to this logic, the bottom of the current decline could fall on October 31, 2026. The miner himself, who has already survived several halvings, is currently holding short positions and plans to return to buying at the bottom.
Arthur Hayes: A Tactical View at $40,000
Arthur Hayes arrived at a similar conclusion but through a different path. In an interview with blogger EllioTrades on June 12, the BitMEX co-founder stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, this bet is more tactical than fundamental. Hayes is hedging his position with put spreads (an options strategy to protect against a decline), but overall he still expects growth—by the end of the year, he anticipates a price above $200,000.
At the time of writing the analysis, Bitcoin was trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% over the day. The range mentioned by Jiang is approximately 30% below this level, while Hayes' $40,000 level implies a drop of nearly 35%.
The key question is whether mNAV will once again lead the price by six months. This will impact Bitcoin forecasts closer to the end of 2026. As an analyst, I would note that the convergence of forecasts from such different figures as a miner and a trader strengthens the likelihood of a deep correction. However, it is important to remember: the bearish signal from MSTR is not a verdict, but rather a warning of a possible prolonged accumulation phase that could last longer than expected. The market loves to surprise, and the current situation is no exception.