OpenAI risks delaying its IPO until 2027: lessons from SpaceX and market pressure
OpenAI's management is seriously considering postponing its public stock offering, with SpaceX's volatile debut being a key factor. My analysis of the situation shows that the market is already pricing in a significant probability of a delay: on Polymarket, traders estimate the chances that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 at 30–40%. This directly reflects skepticism about investor readiness for major offerings in the AI sector.
SpaceX: Rapid Rise and Painful Fall
The SpaceX example has become a clear warning. The company placed shares at $135 each as part of a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11, 2026. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), the price soared to $150, and by June 17 it exceeded $225, temporarily pushing its market cap above $2 trillion. However, by June 26, shares had retreated to $152.86 — nearly back to the offering price — losing all initial gains amid double-digit percentage declines. This volatility — first explosive growth, then a 25–30% correction — is now, according to insiders, directly influencing decisions by OpenAI's board of directors.
Internal Disagreements and a Strategy of Caution
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8 but immediately emphasized that the timing of the offering is not set. "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," OpenAI stated. According to my data, Sarah Friar suggests waiting until 2027, citing huge expenses on computing infrastructure and the complexities of public reporting. Meanwhile, CEO Sam Altman insists on a faster market entry, creating a clear conflict within the leadership.
Why This Matters for Investors
Even the most high-profile offerings now face rigorous assessments of profitability and risks after the lock-up period. OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — at such levels of expectation, the public market does not forgive mistakes. The window for OpenAI to go public remains open, but the situation is extremely uncertain. Watch for SpaceX's recovery in July, potential moves by Anthropic, and OpenAI's quarterly results. Even if the offering is delayed, a more sustainable listing could yield historic returns if the company demonstrates viable revenue from AI technologies amid waning investor interest in "growth at any cost" strategies.
My expert assessment: Postponing the IPO is not a sign of weakness but a mature move. The market is clearly overheated, and OpenAI, unlike SpaceX, can afford to wait. However, the internal struggle between Altman and the conservative wing signals that the company itself is not entirely confident in its ability to justify its sky-high $850 billion valuation in the public arena.