Miners bet on a correction: bitcoin prepares to drop to $42,000
The Bitcoin market is entering a phase that many analysts call the "correction zone." According to my data, one of the largest Chinese miners, Jian Zhouer, founder of the BTC.TOP pool, predicts a local bottom for the first cryptocurrency in the range of $42,000–$44,000. He expects this level to be reached by the end of 2026. His estimate is nearly identical to the recent forecast from BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who set a target of $40,000.
Zhouer's main argument is a bearish signal from the stock of Strategy (ticker MSTR). He points to a sharp drop in the mNAV indicator (adjusted net asset value per share) to 0.72. When mNAV falls below 1.0, the market effectively values the company cheaper than its own Bitcoin holdings. This indicator is now approaching the low of May 2022, when it dropped to record lows. At that time, Bitcoin was worth around $31,000, but later collapsed to $15,650 amid the FTX crash. Zhouer emphasizes that the mNAV low is not necessarily the Bitcoin price low, but rather a warning signal of an impending decline.
The miner ties the timing of his forecast to the four-year cycle model, comparing it to the fading bounces of a ball. According to his logic, the bottom of the current decline could occur on October 31, 2026. Zhouer, who has already survived several halvings, is currently holding short positions and plans to return to buying only at the bottom.
Arthur Hayes: Tactical Bet on a Decline
Arthur Hayes reached a similar conclusion but via a different path. In his recent statement, he noted that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, he views this as a tactical rather than a fundamental bet. Hayes is hedging positions through put spreads, but overall he still expects growth — by the end of the year, he anticipates a price above $200,000.
At the time of writing this analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The range Zhouer mentions is roughly 30% below current levels, while Hayes's $40,000 target implies a drop of nearly 35%. The key question now is whether mNAV will repeat history and lead the price by six months. If so, we are in for a prolonged correction with a local bottom at the end of 2026.
My analysis: Consensus among major miners and institutional traders is a rare occurrence. If mNAV indeed continues to fall, it will become a powerful bearish signal that could trigger a cascade of liquidations. Investors should prepare for volatility in the coming quarters and consider the $40,000–$44,000 levels as a zone for long-term accumulation.