OpenAI may postpone its IPO to 2027: lessons from SpaceX's turbulent listing
OpenAI's leadership appears to be seriously reconsidering the timeline for its long-awaited public offering. The reason is SpaceX's volatile stock market debut, which demonstrated how risky large-scale listings can be in current market conditions.
Polymarket: Probability of delay is rising
On the Polymarket platform, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 in the range of 30–40%. This indicator reflects growing market skepticism regarding the company's ability to carry out a major listing in the near term.
The SpaceX Case: From Euphoria to Correction
SpaceX listed its shares at $135 each in a $75 billion IPO on June 11, 2026. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), the stock opened at $150, and by June 17, the price had surged above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization above $2 trillion. However, by June 26, the shares had retreated to $152.86 — nearly returning to the offering price after a series of double-digit declines.
Such volatility — a 65% surge followed by a 25–30% pullback — is now, according to insiders, directly influencing the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors.
Internal Disagreements: When to Go Public?
OpenAI filed a confidential registration with the SEC on June 8 but immediately indicated that the timeline for the public offering had not yet been determined. "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," the company stated.
According to informed sources, Sarah Friar suggests waiting until 2027 due to massive spending on computing infrastructure and the complexities of public reporting. Meanwhile, CEO Sam Altman is pushing for a faster market entry, creating tension within the leadership.
Cryptalist Analysis
Even with a private valuation of $850 billion, OpenAI faces a harsh reality: the public market does not forgive mistakes and demands clear monetization. The SpaceX case showed that even the biggest names can fall victim to the "lock-up effect," when investors begin to take profits after the restriction period ends.
From my perspective, postponing the IPO to 2027 is a rational decision. A more sustainable listing will generate historical returns if the company can demonstrate viable revenue from AI technologies amid declining investor interest in "growth at any cost" strategies. However, if OpenAI fails to show convincing quarterly results, the window of opportunity may close.