Bearish Consensus: Chinese Miner and Arthur Hayes Agree on Bitcoin Drop to $42,000 Forecast
The cryptocurrency market continues to show signs of a deep correction, and two well-known industry players—Chinese miner Jian Zhouer and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes—have independently arrived at strikingly similar conclusions. According to their analysis, Bitcoin could test levels around $40,000–$44,000, with a local bottom not expected until the end of 2026.
Jian's main argument is the sharp decline in the mNAV indicator of Strategy (ticker MSTR) shares. This multiplier, reflecting the ratio of the company's market capitalization to its Bitcoin holdings per share, has now dropped to 0.72. A value below 1.0 means the market values the company at less than its own Bitcoin reserves. The current mNAV level has nearly reached the lows of May 2022, which Jian interprets as a strong bearish signal. However, he warns: "the mNAV bottom is not yet the Bitcoin price bottom." In 2022, after the mNAV bottomed, Bitcoin continued to fall for another six months, crashing from $31,000 to $15,650 amid the FTX collapse.
Jian uses a four-year cycle model, comparing market movements to "dampening ball bounces." According to his logic, the bottom of the current decline could fall on October 31, 2026. The miner, who has already survived several halvings, is currently holding short positions and plans to start actively buying at the expected bottom.
Arthur Hayes, for his part, reached a similar conclusion but via a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, his bet is more tactical in nature: he uses put spreads for hedging but remains bullish overall for the end of the year, expecting a price above $200,000.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $61,345, down 2.3% in the last 24 hours. Jian's projected range ($42,000–$44,000) is roughly 30% below current levels, while Hayes's level ($40,000) implies a drop of nearly 35%. The key question facing the market now is: will mNAV repeat its historical pattern and lead the price by six months? If so, we are in for a long and painful bearish trend that could stretch until the end of 2026.
Expert opinion: Consensus between such different figures as a miner and a trader is rarely coincidental. The drop in mNAV to 2022 lows is a warning signal that cannot be ignored. However, it is important to remember that the market could find a bottom earlier if new growth catalysts emerge. For now, investors should prepare for volatility and, possibly, an opportunity to enter at attractive levels.