SpaceX IPO has failed: OpenAI questions going public before 2027
OpenAI's leadership appears to have paused to reassess its plans for an initial public offering (IPO). The reason was the high-profile but extremely unsuccessful debut of SpaceX shares, which clearly demonstrated all the risks of large-scale placements in the high-tech sector. The market, it seems, no longer forgives even the most hyped companies for inflated expectations.
On the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, traders are already estimating the probability that OpenAI will not go public before the end of 2026 at 30-40%. This indicator speaks volumes about the deep skepticism of market participants, who are placing large bets against a swift listing of the AI giant.
Lessons from SpaceX: From Euphoria to Collapse
SpaceX placed its shares at a price of $135 each as part of a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11, 2026. The first day of trading under the ticker SPCX started at $150, and by June 17, the price had soared above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization above $2 trillion. However, euphoria gave way to sharp disappointment. In just a few days, the shares lost virtually all of their initial gains and collapsed by 25-30%. As of June 26, SPCX is trading around $152.86 — almost unchanged from the offering price after a series of double-digit declines.
It is this volatility — a rapid surge followed by an equally swift pullback — that, according to insiders, is now directly influencing the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors.
Internal Disagreements at OpenAI
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8, but immediately noted that specific timelines for the public offering have not yet been determined. The company stated: "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company."
According to available data, CFO Sarah Fryer suggests waiting at least until 2027. The main arguments are the enormous costs of computing infrastructure needed for AI development and the complexities associated with public reporting. Meanwhile, CEO Sam Altman holds the opposite view, insisting on a faster market entry. This split within the leadership only adds to the uncertainty.
Why This Matters for Investors
Even for the most high-profile placements, the moment of a rigorous test of profitability and business model viability is now arriving after the lock-up period ends. OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — at such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes. The window for OpenAI to go public remains open for now, but the situation is extremely unstable.
Analyst Comment: Investors should closely monitor the recovery of SpaceX shares in July, as well as potential moves by Anthropic and OpenAI's quarterly results. Even if the listing is delayed, a more sustainable and well-thought-out market entry could yield historic returns — provided the company can demonstrate viable revenues from AI technologies amid waning interest in the "growth at any cost" strategy. In current market conditions, a hasty IPO could spell disaster for the entire company's valuation.