Bearish consensus: Chinese miner and Arthur Hayes see Bitcoin bottom near $40,000
The Bitcoin market is entering a phase where even the most experienced players are beginning to prepare for a deep correction. One of China's largest miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool, Jiang Zhuoe, expressed the opinion that the local bottom of the first cryptocurrency will fall in the range of $42,000–$44,000. According to his estimates, this level will be reached by the end of 2026.
Notably, his forecast almost coincides with a recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who expects a decline to $40,000 within the next six months. Thus, we are witnessing a rare consensus between representatives of the mining community and institutional trading.
Signal from MSTR: mNAV at 2022 lows
Jiang Zhuoe's key argument is the mNAV indicator of Strategy (ticker MSTR). This indicator reflects the ratio of the company's market value of shares to the amount of Bitcoin per share. Currently, mNAV has dropped to almost 0.7, which corresponds to the lows of May 2022. When this ratio is below 1.0, the market values the company cheaper than its own Bitcoin holdings, which is a classic bearish signal.
"It must be taken into account that the mNAV minimum is not yet the minimum price of Bitcoin," the miner emphasized.
Jiang Zhuoe defines the time frame using the four-year cycle model, comparing the current dynamics to "dampening ball bounces." According to his logic, the bottom of the current decline could fall on October 31, 2026. The miner himself, who has survived several halvings, is already holding short positions and plans to return to buying only at the bottom.
Hayes' tactical approach
Arthur Hayes arrived at a similar conclusion but by a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, his bet is more tactical than fundamental: he uses put spreads to protect against a decline, but overall still expects growth by the end of the year — above $200,000.
At the time of writing the analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% over the day. The range mentioned by Jiang Zhuoe lies approximately 30% below this mark, and Hayes' $40,000 level implies a drop of nearly 35%.
My analysis: The coincidence of forecasts from such different figures as a Chinese miner and the founder of BitMEX is a serious signal. The market is clearly pricing in a bearish scenario, and the key question now is not whether a correction will occur, but when exactly it will materialize. If mNAV continues to lead the price, as it did in 2022, we could see a prolonged decline until the end of 2026. Investors should pay attention to this indicator as an early harbinger of the bottom.