OpenAI puts IPO on hold: lessons from SpaceX and the "cautious" stock market debut scenario
OpenAI's management is currently actively discussing a postponement of its initial public offering (IPO), with SpaceX's volatile debut serving as a key catalyst for this decision. I am closely monitoring this situation, and in my view, it demonstrates a fundamental shift in sentiment within the market for major tech listings.
SpaceX: Takeoff and Painful Correction
SpaceX conducted its IPO on June 11, 2026, at a price of $135 per share, raising $75 billion. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), shares opened at $150, and by June 17, they had surged above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization past the $2 trillion mark. However, a sharp decline followed. By June 26, shares were trading around $152.86, effectively returning to the offering price. The double-digit percentage drop over several days erased all initial gains.
It is this "roller coaster" — a 66% surge followed by a pullback — that has become the primary cautionary tale for OpenAI's board of directors.
Internal Debates and Signals from Polymarket
OpenAI filed a confidential registration with the SEC on June 8 but immediately made it clear that the timing of the public offering was undetermined. According to insiders, CFO Sarah Friar is leaning towards postponing the IPO to 2027, citing massive expenditures on computing infrastructure and the complexities of public reporting. Meanwhile, CEO Sam Altman is pushing for a faster market entry.
On the Polymarket platform, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO by the end of 2026 at 30–40%. This is a significant signal of skepticism from "smart money."
Key quote from OpenAI: "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company."
Why This Matters for Investors
OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion. At such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes. The SpaceX case showed that even the most high-profile listings face a harsh assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends.
My analysis: Postponing the IPO is not a sign of weakness, but a mark of maturity. OpenAI understands that the "window of opportunity" is still open, but a failed debut amid cooling interest in "growth at any cost" strategies could undermine investor confidence for a long time. A more sustainable listing in 2027, backed by real revenues from AI technologies, could yield historic returns. What we are witnessing now is not an abandonment of plans, but a tactical pause — and this is likely the right decision.