Cryptalist Analyst: Bearish Signal from Strategy Indicates a Local Bitcoin Bottom of $42,000 by the End of 2026
The bitcoin market is once again entering a zone of turbulence, and leading industry players agree: a significant correction is ahead. One of China's largest miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool Jiang Zhuoer, predicts the first cryptocurrency will fall to the $42,000–$44,000 mark. This scenario is almost identical to the recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who expects a decline to $40,000 within the next six months.
Signal from MSTR shares: mNAV at 2022 lows
Jiang's key argument is the critical drop in the mNAV (adjusted net asset value) indicator of Strategy (ticker MSTR). This metric reflects the ratio of the company's stock market price to the value of the bitcoin it holds per share. Currently, mNAV has fallen to 0.72, nearly matching the lows of May 2022 — a period that preceded the market crash.
It is important to understand: the mNAV low itself is not a precise price target for bitcoin. As Jiang emphasizes, this signal indicates that the market is undervaluing Strategy's shares, not the bottom of the asset itself. In 2022, after the mNAV low was reached with bitcoin around $31,000, the market fell another 50% — to $15,650 amid the FTX collapse. The gap between the two points was nearly six months.
Cyclical model and timeframes
To determine timing, Jiang uses a four-year cycle model, comparing market movements to "dampening ball bounces." According to this logic, the local bottom of the current downtrend could fall on October 31, 2026. The miner himself is already holding short positions and plans to aggressively return to buying at the bottom — a strategy he has successfully applied over several halvings.
Arthur Hayes: tactical bearish view amid bullish forecast
Arthur Hayes, for his part, reached a similar conclusion but by a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, this is more of a tactical bet: he is hedging positions with put spreads (an options strategy to protect against declines), but still expects a rise above $200,000 by year-end. Thus, the correction to $40,000 is seen as a temporary "buying zone," not a fundamental trend reversal.
At the time of analysis, bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The $42,000 level cited by Jiang is roughly 30% below current values, while Hayes' $40,000 mark implies a decline of nearly 35%.
My professional opinion: The scenario of a drop to $40,000–42,000 looks realistic within the current bearish cycle, especially given pressure from macroeconomic factors and slowing institutional demand. However, a repeat of the 2022 history, where the mNAV low preceded bitcoin's bottom by six months, is unlikely — the market has become more efficient, and liquidity more fragmented. Investors should prepare for purchases in this range, but not rush: the entry signal should not be reaching a specific price, but a change in mNAV dynamics and stabilization of trading volume.