SpaceX showed how not to do it: OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027
OpenAI's management appears to have paused and is reconsidering its plans for an initial public offering. The reason is not just market turbulence, but a specific and highly illustrative example: the SpaceX IPO. This case has become a powerful cautionary tale for the entire high-tech industry.
On the Polymarket platform, traders currently estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 to be in the range of 30–40%. These are not just numbers, but a reflection of deep skepticism. The market no longer believes in the automatic success of high-profile listings, especially in the AI sector, where capitalization is often disconnected from real financial performance.
SpaceX: A Dizzying Rise and a Painful Fall
Let me remind you how events unfolded with SpaceX. The company placed shares at a price of $135 each as part of a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11, 2026. The first day of trading (ticker SPCX) started at $150, and by June 17, the price had soared above $225, momentarily providing a market capitalization of over $2 trillion. But the euphoria was short-lived.
SpaceX shares lost virtually all of their initial gains and sharply declined. As of June 26, SPCX is trading around $152.86 — almost unchanged from the offering price after a series of days with double-digit percentage drops. Such volatility — first rapid growth, then a pullback of 25–30% — according to insiders, is now directly influencing the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors.
Internal Disagreements and a Wait-and-See Strategy
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8, but immediately indicated that the timing of the public offering has not yet been determined. The company's official position: "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company."
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar, according to informed sources, suggests waiting until 2027. Her argument is based on huge expenses, the need to invest in computing infrastructure, and the complexities of public reporting. Notably, CEO Sam Altman's opinion differs from his colleagues — he insists on a faster market entry.
Why This Matters for Investors
The SpaceX case is a powerful signal. Even the most high-profile listings now face a harsh assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends. OpenAI's last private valuation reached $850 billion — with such expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes.
My analysis: OpenAI's wait-and-see strategy seems reasonable. The market is currently extremely volatile, and any unsuccessful listing could collapse confidence in the AI sector as a whole. A delay until 2027 will give the company time to consolidate its financial performance and wait for more favorable conditions. Investors should closely monitor this process — it will determine the development vector of the entire technology segment.