SpaceX IPO showed a red card to the market: OpenAI is reconsidering its listing plans
The turbulent yet rapidly cooling debut of SpaceX on the stock market has become a warning signal for the entire high-tech IPO sector. OpenAI's management, observing the volatility of its "space race" competitor's shares, is now urging extreme caution regarding its own plans to go public. This case clearly demonstrates how unpredictable the reception of the public market can be, even for the biggest names.
The SpaceX Lesson: From Euphoria to Reality in Two Weeks
SpaceX's initial public offering (ticker SPCX) took place on June 11 at a price of $135 per share, with a total IPO volume of $75 billion. The start was impressive: on the very first day of trading, shares soared to $150, and by June 17, they peaked above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization past the $2 trillion mark. However, the euphoria was short-lived. By June 26, quotes had crashed back to around $152.86, essentially losing all initial gains. Such a 25-30% correction in a matter of days is a powerful signal of the risks associated with listing overheated assets.
OpenAI's Caution: Waiting Until 2027?
Against this backdrop, OpenAI's management is adopting a wait-and-see approach. The company filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8 but immediately made it clear that no specific timeline for the public offering has been set. According to my information, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar is leaning towards postponing the IPO until 2027. The main reasons are the enormous costs of computing infrastructure and the challenges associated with transitioning to public reporting. Notably, opinions within the company are divided: CEO Sam Altman is pushing for a faster market entry.
What Does This Mean for Investors?
The market is already pricing in a significant degree of skepticism regarding OpenAI's prospects. On the Polymarket platform, traders estimate the probability that the company will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 at 30-40%. OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — at such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes. The SpaceX case has served as a sobering reminder: even the most hyped stories carry the risk of a crash immediately after listing.
My analysis: In the current macroeconomic environment, where the market is extremely sensitive to profitability, OpenAI is acting wisely by not rushing. Haste with an IPO, fueled by the AI hype, could lead to a repeat of the SpaceX scenario — and instead of raising capital, the company risks a reputational blow and devaluation. The window of opportunity is still open, but it is narrowing with each market correction.