OpenAI's IPO in Question: Lessons from SpaceX Force AI Giant to Reconsider Plans
OpenAI's leadership is demonstrating extreme caution regarding the timeline for its highly anticipated initial public offering (IPO). The reason is the dramatic and instructive experience of SpaceX, whose offering turned into a classic example of market volatility and rapid asset revaluation.
On the Polymarket platform, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 at 30-40%. This reflects market skepticism and uncertainty about the company's readiness for such a significant step under current conditions.
SpaceX: From Euphoria to Disappointment
Recall that SpaceX conducted a massive IPO on June 11, 2026, placing shares at $135 each with a total valuation of $75 billion. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), the shares soared to $150, and by June 17, the price exceeded $225, temporarily raising the company's market capitalization above $2 trillion. It was a triumph, but, as is known, the triumph was short-lived.
By June 26, SpaceX shares were trading around $152.86 — practically returning to the offering price after a series of double-digit percentage declines. Such volatility — a sharp surge followed by a 25-30% pullback — became a warning signal for the entire technology sector.
A Lesson for OpenAI
According to insiders, this very case is now being actively discussed by OpenAI's board of directors. The company filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8 but immediately made it clear that public offering timelines have not yet been determined.
"We are not rushing because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," OpenAI stated.
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar, according to available information, suggests waiting until 2027. She points to enormous expenses, the need to invest in computing infrastructure, and the complexities associated with transitioning to public reporting. Her position is supported by observations of SpaceX: even the most high-profile offerings are now facing a tough assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends.
However, opinions within the company are divided. CEO Sam Altman insists on a faster market entry, creating tension in management.
Why This Matters for Investors
OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion. At such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes. Investors see that even SpaceX, with its charismatic leader and unique technologies, could not maintain its price after a turbulent start. OpenAI, with its even higher valuation and significant operating losses, risks facing a similar, if not harsher, reaction.
My expert opinion: The SpaceX situation is an ideal "vaccination" material for OpenAI. It clearly demonstrates that in the current macroeconomic environment and with high capital concentration in the AI sector, even the most anticipated IPOs can turn into a "pump and dump." A delay is not a sign of weakness but a sign of maturity and understanding of market dynamics. OpenAI will likely go public only when it is confident it can offer the market a sustainable growth model, not just a big name.