OpenAI IPO: SpaceX volatility prompts management to reconsider listing timeline
OpenAI's management has adopted a wait-and-see approach regarding the timing of its initial public offering. The reason is the high-profile but extremely volatile stock market debut of SpaceX, which clearly demonstrated the risks technology giants face when going public. This precedent is forcing OpenAI's board of directors to act with utmost caution.
Lessons from SpaceX: From Euphoria to Reality
On June 11, 2026, SpaceX conducted one of the largest IPOs in history, placing shares at $135 each with a valuation of $75 billion. The first days of trading were staggering: the ticker SPCX soared above $225, and the company's market capitalization briefly exceeded $2 trillion. However, the rapid rise was followed by an equally rapid decline. By June 26, shares had returned to around $152.86, almost completely losing all initial gains. This correction of 25-30% from peak values became a warning signal for the entire market.
It is this scenario — a surge followed by a sharp fall — that is now being actively discussed within OpenAI's board of directors. Insiders confirm that the SpaceX story directly influences decisions regarding the AI developer's own IPO.
OpenAI's Strategy: Caution Above All
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8, but immediately made it clear that specific timelines for the public offering remain uncertain. CFO Sarah Friar, according to available information, advocates postponing the IPO to 2027. Her argument is based on three key factors: colossal operating expenses, the need for massive investments in computing infrastructure, and the complexities associated with transitioning to a public reporting regime.
Notably, CEO Sam Altman's position diverges from the CFO's opinion — he insists on a faster market entry. This internal conflict adds uncertainty to an already complex situation.
Market Sentiment and Valuation
Traders on the Polymarket platform estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 at 30-40%. This forecast reflects market skepticism about the company's readiness for a public offering in the near term. OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — at such levels of expectation, the stock market does not forgive mistakes, and any discrepancy could lead to a harsh correction.
Cryptalist Analysis: The SpaceX story is not just a market episode, but a clear signal for all issuers in the AI sector. The market is no longer willing to pay for promises of future growth without confirmed profitability. For OpenAI, whose business model still requires enormous capital expenditures, a premature IPO could result in reputational and financial losses. The window of opportunity for an IPO remains open, but the stakes are becoming too high to take risks.