OpenAI's IPO in Question: SpaceX's Lesson Prompts Board to Reconsider Timeline
OpenAI's board of directors is demonstrating extreme caution regarding the issue of going public, with SpaceX's recent experience serving as the main catalyst for this skepticism. Analyzing the volatility and risks inherent in large-scale high-tech listings, the company's leadership is inclined not to rush into a public offering.
On the Polymarket platform, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 to be in the range of 30–40%. These figures clearly reflect the prevailing pessimistic sentiment in the market regarding the company's near-term prospects.
SpaceX: A Dizzying Rise and a Painful Fall
The story of SpaceX's listing has been a sobering example. The company conducted a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11, setting the offering price at $135 per share. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), the shares started at $150, and by June 17 had surged above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization past the $2 trillion mark. However, this triumph proved short-lived.
The market quickly changed its mind. By June 26, SpaceX shares had collapsed to nearly the offering price, trading around $152.86. Such a sharp reversal — growth of tens of percent followed by a pullback of 25–30% — could not go unnoticed. According to insider information, it is this volatility that is now directly influencing the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors.
OpenAI: Caution Over Ambition
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8, but immediately made it clear that specific timelines for the public offering had not been determined. "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," company representatives stated.
According to informed sources, OpenAI's Chief Financial Officer, Sarah Friar, is advocating for postponing the IPO until 2027. Her position is driven by enormous expenses on computing infrastructure and the complexities associated with public reporting. Notably, CEO Sam Altman's opinion diverges from that of his colleagues — he insists on a faster entry into the market.
Why This Matters for Investors
The SpaceX case clearly demonstrates that even the most high-profile listings today face a harsh assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period expires. OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — at such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes. The window for OpenAI to go public is still open, but the situation remains highly uncertain.
My analysis: In the current macroeconomic environment and with skepticism towards "growth stories" dominating, forcing an IPO would be an extremely risky move for OpenAI. A delay until 2027 seems not just prudent, but the only viable strategy to maintain control over valuation and avoid the "SpaceX trap," where the initial hype gives way to disappointment and sell-offs.