OpenAI's IPO in question: SpaceX's lessons prompt a reassessment of listing timelines
OpenAI's management is urging caution in assessing the timeline for a potential initial public offering (IPO). The reason is the volatility experienced by SpaceX after its stock market debut. According to my information, this precedent is prompting OpenAI's board of directors to reconsider its strategy and not rush into the public market.
Polymarket: odds of an IPO before 2026 are declining
Traders on the Polymarket platform estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 at 30-40%. This forecast, in my view, reflects growing market skepticism. Investors are beginning to doubt the company's ability to meet high expectations under current conditions.
SpaceX: from a trillion to zero in two weeks
As a reminder, SpaceX listed its shares at $135 each as part of a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), the price started at $150 and rose above $225 by June 17, temporarily exceeding a $2 trillion market capitalization. However, the situation changed very quickly. SpaceX shares almost completely lost their initial gains and sharply declined. As of June 26, SPCX is trading around $152.86 — nearly unchanged from the offering price after several days of double-digit percentage drops.
This volatility — first rapid growth, then a 25-30% pullback — is now reportedly influencing decisions by OpenAI's board of directors. It is a classic example of how even the most high-profile listings face harsh scrutiny of profitability and risks once the initial hype subsides.
OpenAI leans toward delaying the offering
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8 but immediately stated that the timeline for the public offering has not yet been determined. The company said: "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company." OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar suggests waiting until 2027, citing large expenses, the need to invest in computing infrastructure, and challenges with public reporting. Notably, CEO Sam Altman's opinion differs from his colleagues — he insists on a faster market entry.
Why this matters for investors
OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion. At such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes. The window for OpenAI to go public is still open, but the situation remains uncertain. SpaceX has clearly demonstrated that even the most powerful brands can face harsh reality after listing.
Analyst comment: In the current macroeconomic environment, where the market demands not just promises but concrete profitability metrics, OpenAI's decision to wait appears strategically sound. However, delaying the IPO could cost the company part of its valuation if competitors or regulatory changes alter the landscape. Investors should closely monitor developments in AI infrastructure spending — this factor will be the key trigger for the final decision.