OpenAI may delay its IPO: the SpaceX lesson prompts a reassessment of the timeline
OpenAI's leadership, according to my information, is urging caution regarding the company's timeline for going public. The reason is the turbulent and highly unstable launch of SpaceX, which clearly demonstrated the risks of large stock placements in the AI sector.
The market bets on a delay
On Polymarket, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 at 30–40%. This forecast reflects skeptical sentiment in the market: investors are clearly doubtful about the company's imminent stock exchange debut.
SpaceX: rise and fall
SpaceX placed shares at a price of $135 each as part of a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11, 2026. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), the price started at $150 and rose above $225 by June 17. The company's market capitalization briefly exceeded $2 trillion.
However, the situation changed very quickly. SpaceX shares almost completely lost their initial gains and sharply declined. As of June 26, SPCX is trading around $152.86 — almost unchanged from the offering price after several days of double-digit percentage drops.
Such volatility — first rapid growth, then a 25–30% pullback — is now, according to my information from insiders, influencing the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors.
OpenAI leans toward delaying the placement
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8, but immediately indicated that the timeline for the public offering has not yet been determined.
"We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," OpenAI stated.
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar, according to my information, suggests waiting until 2027 amid high expenses, the need to invest in computing infrastructure, and challenges with public reporting.
CEO Sam Altman's opinion diverges from his colleagues — he insists on a faster market entry. Insiders note: the SpaceX case amplifies market participants' concerns.
Why this matters for investors
Even the most high-profile placements now face a tough assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends.
OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — at such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes.
The window for OpenAI to go public is still open, but the situation remains uncertain.
My expert assessment: The SpaceX story is a clear signal for the entire tech sector. The market is no longer willing to blindly reward "hype" stories. For OpenAI, with its enormous infrastructure costs and unclear path to profitability, a hasty IPO could result in reputational and financial fiasco. A delay until 2027 looks not just reasonable, but a necessary precaution.