OpenAI may delay its IPO: lessons from SpaceX and market uncertainty
OpenAI's leadership is exercising caution regarding the timeline for its initial public offering (IPO), carefully analyzing the recent volatile experience of SpaceX. This case serves as a stark reminder of the risks associated with large equity offerings in the high-tech sector, especially in the field of artificial intelligence.
Signals from the Prediction Market
On the Polymarket platform, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 to be in the range of 30-40%. This forecast reflects market skepticism and indicates that even for giants like OpenAI, the path to going public is not guaranteed.
SpaceX: From Takeoff to Crash in Two Weeks
SpaceX conducted a massive $75 billion placement on June 11, 2026, at a price of $135 per share. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), shares started at $150, and by June 17, the price had soared above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization above $2 trillion. However, this was followed by a rapid collapse. By June 26, SPCX was trading around $152.86, having almost completely lost all its initial gains and recording double-digit percentage declines. This volatility — first a speculative surge, then a sharp 25-30% pullback — is now, according to insiders, directly influencing the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors.
OpenAI Adopts a Wait-and-See Approach
OpenAI filed a confidential registration with the SEC on June 8 but immediately emphasized that specific timelines for the public offering have not yet been determined. "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," the company stated. OpenAI's Chief Financial Officer, Sarah Friar, is reportedly suggesting postponing the IPO until 2027. The main reasons are the enormous costs of computing infrastructure and the complexities associated with public reporting. Meanwhile, CEO Sam Altman's opinion diverges from his colleagues: he insists on a faster market entry.
Why This Matters for Investors
Even the most high-profile placements are now facing a harsh assessment of profitability and risks after the end of the lock-up period. OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — at such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes. The window for OpenAI to go public is still open, but the situation remains highly uncertain.
My professional opinion: The SpaceX case is not just an isolated incident but a systemic signal. The market has become much more demanding of fundamental metrics, and even big-name brands are not immune to corrections. OpenAI would likely be wise to take a pause to strengthen its financial performance and wait for a more favorable market environment.