OpenAI reconsiders IPO plans: SpaceX volatility serves as a warning signal
OpenAI's leadership, according to insiders, is urging caution regarding the company's timeline for going public. The reason is the turbulent and highly volatile start of SpaceX's public offering, which clearly demonstrated the risks associated with large stock placements in the high-tech and artificial intelligence sectors.
On the Polymarket platform, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 at 30-40%. This forecast reflects growing market skepticism about the company's readiness for such a significant step.
Lessons from SpaceX: From Euphoria to Reality
SpaceX placed shares at $135 each as part of a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11, 2026. The first day of trading (ticker SPCX) started at $150, and by June 17, the price had soared above $225, briefly pushing the company's market capitalization past $2 trillion.
However, the market euphoria was short-lived. SpaceX shares almost completely lost their initial gains and sharply declined. As of June 26, SPCX is trading around $152.86 — nearly unchanged from the placement price after a series of days with double-digit percentage drops.
This volatility — first a rapid surge, then a 25-30% pullback — is now, according to insider reports, directly influencing the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors.
OpenAI Leans Toward a Delay
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8, but immediately indicated that the timeline for the public offering has not yet been determined.
"We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," OpenAI stated.
The company's CFO, Sarah Friar, suggests waiting until 2027. Her argument is based on huge expenses, the need to invest in computing infrastructure, and the complexities of public reporting. Meanwhile, CEO Sam Altman's opinion diverges from his colleagues — he insists on a faster market entry.
Why This Matters for Investors
Even the most high-profile placements now face a harsh assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends. OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — with such high expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes.
The window for OpenAI to go public is still open, but the situation remains highly uncertain. The SpaceX case has become a sobering signal for the entire market, especially for companies with inflated expectations.
Analytical Commentary: The market has made it clear: even the most hyped IPOs are not immune to brutal corrections. OpenAI, observing this, is acting wisely by not rushing. However, delaying the launch could also result in a missed opportunity if market sentiment changes. Investors should closely monitor developments — the stakes here are extremely high.