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The main driver for all risk assets has shifted dramatically. On June 17, new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh took a hawkish stance, and the financial world reacted instantly. The market didn't just erase rate cut expectations; it began actively pricing in a rate hike.

As an experienced analyst, I closely monitor macroeconomic signals, and what we are witnessing now is a classic reversal. The U.S. dollar has already hit a new yearly high. The S&P 500 index is steadily moving toward its fourth consecutive red weekly candle. Gold and silver are undergoing notable corrections, and SpaceX shares have plunged 30% from their peaks. Money is now being parked in government bonds — this is not just a trend, but a new reality.

Why Capital Is Fleeing to Bonds

The logic behind this movement is built on a rapid reassessment of market risks. When the cost of money rises, companies' future cash flows are discounted at a higher rate. This primarily hits the valuations of growth stocks, especially in the technology sector, which was heavily inflated by cheap credit. Capital senses such changes about a quarter in advance.

I interpret the decline in oil prices quite uniquely: it is not a reason for joy, but a clear symptom of an economic slowdown. For the Fed, falling commodity prices no longer offset stubbornly rising service prices. Gasoline in the country is getting cheaper, but services, insurance, and rental housing continue to rise rapidly. Consequently, core inflation has firmly taken hold, which is why the regulator is talking about rate hikes to suppress demand.

The main argument in favor of bonds is the positive real rate. The nominal yield on short- and medium-term securities is at multi-decade highs. Accordingly, the real yield becomes abnormally attractive for major players. Thinking it is better to earn in stocks is a common fatal mistake. Why take on the risk of a 20% correction in the S&P 500 when a risk-free instrument offers guaranteed returns?

Gold clearly loses out in this scheme for the same reason. The asset does not generate a stable cash flow. Therefore, when real yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding it becomes prohibitively high.

Additionally, I point to the traditional end-of-quarter effect. Large funds need to lock in profits in overheated assets and show clients a stable result. The safest way to do this is to shift into fixed-income instruments.

I associate the rotation scenario with the actions of Goldman and JP Morgan. Incidentally, JP Morgan itself needs to rebalance a $165 billion portfolio by June 30. This is precisely why stocks, gold, and crypto are falling simultaneously right now. The first thing to do in such a situation is to actively hedge with shorts.

Scenarios for Gold and Bitcoin

Over the next few months, I expect the Fed to maintain a pause. The first rate hike, if it happens at all, will occur no earlier than September. This means short-term yields will remain high, and capital will continue to flow into bonds. Metals, in my forecast, will trade within a range with downside risk. If the market believes in several rate hikes, gold could be sold down to $3000. However, a crash is not expected due to ongoing purchases by global central banks.

For gold, I am not opening a short from current levels. Instead, I am waiting for a local bounce to gradually build a position:

• first entry into the market around $4250 (25% of position size);
• second zone for adding around $4400 (another 35% of position);
• final addition near the $4500 level with signs of buyer weakness.

The level for a complete cancellation of the entire bearish scenario will be a price close above $4600. I plan to take profits in stages.

For bitcoin, the calculation relies entirely on the classic cyclical model. The key global cycle reversal typically occurs approximately 826 days after the halving. After that, it takes another 70 to 110 days to reach the main bottom. In relation to the current cycle, the 826-day zone falls at the end of July. Thus, the potential main bottom is expected in October-November in the range of approximately $50,000-55,000.

However, I do not expect the price to drop in one sharp move. A "bull trap" in July with a bounce to the $70,000 area is quite likely. My current tactical goal is to catch a long position in the $58,000-58,500 zone. This will allow profiting from a move to $67,000-70,000, after which a new wave of decline will begin toward autumn.

My expert conclusion: The market is transitioning into a phase of tight monetary policy, and this fundamentally changes the rules of the game. Investors should reconsider their portfolios in favor of defensive assets and be prepared for volatility in the coming months. Bitcoin, as the riskiest asset, could show a deep correction, but this is precisely what will create opportunities for entry at the cycle bottom.