The OpenAI IPO is in question: SpaceX's lesson makes the board of directors nervous
OpenAI's board of directors appears to have paused the question of going public. The reason is not just internal disagreements, but a clear, almost textbook example of how even the most high-profile IPO can turn into a painful correction. The case in point, of course, is SpaceX.
On the Polymarket platform, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an initial public offering before the end of 2026 at 30-40%. These figures speak eloquently about market skepticism. Inside the company, according to available information, there is a split: CFO Sarah Friar, citing huge capital expenditures and the complexities of public reporting, suggests targeting 2027. Her opponent, CEO Sam Altman, on the contrary, insists on an earlier exit.
Volatility as a Warning
The SpaceX case has become a powerful catalyst for these debates. The share placement (ticker SPCX) at a price of $135 per share on June 11, 2026, raised $75 billion. On the first day of trading, shares soared to $150, and by June 17, the company's market capitalization briefly exceeded $2 trillion. However, the euphoria gave way to a sharp decline. By June 26, SPCX was trading around $152.86, almost returning to the offering price after a series of double-digit drops.
This volatility — first a rapid surge, then a pullback of 25-30% — is now, according to insiders, directly influencing the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors. The company filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8, but immediately made it clear that specific timelines were not set. "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," OpenAI stated.
Stakes Higher Than Ever
OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion. With such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes. Even the most prominent placements now face a harsh assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends. The window for OpenAI to go public is still open, but the situation remains extremely uncertain.
Expert opinion: The SpaceX story is a wake-up call for the entire high-tech sector. The market is no longer willing to pay for promises; it demands concrete financial results. OpenAI, with its enormous infrastructure costs and unclear monetization timelines, is in a high-risk zone. Delaying the IPO may not be a sign of weakness, but rather the only reasonable step to preserve long-term value.