OpenAI IPO in Question: SpaceX Lesson Prompts Board to Reconsider Timeline
OpenAI's leadership, according to insider sources, is urging caution regarding the timeline for an initial public offering (IPO). The reason is SpaceX's volatile debut on the stock market. This case, in my opinion, has become a warning signal for the entire high-tech sector, especially for companies whose valuation is approaching a trillion dollars.
SpaceX Volatility: From Euphoria to Correction
SpaceX priced its shares at $135 each in a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), the stock opened at $150, and by June 17, it had surged above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization above $2 trillion. However, the market quickly shifted. The shares almost completely lost their initial gains and sharply declined. As of June 26, SPCX is trading around $152.86 — nearly unchanged from the offering price after a series of days with double-digit percentage drops.
This volatility — first a rapid surge, then a 25-30% pullback — is now, according to insider reports, directly influencing the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors.
OpenAI Leaning Toward Delaying the Offering
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8, but immediately stated that the timeline for the public offering has not yet been determined. "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," OpenAI stated.
OpenAI's CFO, Sarah Friar, according to informed sources, is suggesting waiting until 2027. Arguments include huge expenses, the need to invest in computing infrastructure, and the complexities of public reporting. CEO Sam Altman's opinion differs from his colleagues — he insists on a faster market entry.
Why This Matters for Investors
Even the most high-profile offerings now face a harsh assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends. OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — at this level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes. The window for OpenAI to go public is still open, but the situation remains uncertain.
My analysis: The SpaceX case clearly demonstrates that even companies with a "hype" brand are not immune to brutal corrections. For OpenAI, whose capitalization is comparable to entire industries, any miscalculation could result in multi-billion dollar losses. The board's decision to pause is not a sign of weakness, but a sign of maturity. However, delaying the IPO could deprive the company of access to "cheap" money at a time when competition in the AI sector is reaching its peak.